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AFC
AFC · 2026 DIVISION RACE

AFC West 2026

We project the Broncos to win the AFC West in 42% of simulations, ahead of the Chiefs at 31%. Full projected order of finish below.

Broncos
PROJECTED WINNER
42%
DIVISION ODDS
9.8
BRONCOS PROJ WINS
2
PROJ PLAYOFF TEAMS
10,000 SIMULATIONS · REAL 2026 SCHEDULE

PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH

BY EXPECTED WINS · 10,000 SIMS
#TEAMPROJ WRANGEDIV ODDSPLAYOFF
1
Denver Broncos
DEN
Broncos
9.87–1342%68%
2
Kansas City Chiefs
KC
Chiefs
9.16–1231%55%
3
Los Angeles Chargers
LAC
Chargers
8.65–1224%46%
4
Las Vegas Raiders
LV
Raiders
6.13–94%10%

AFC WEST 2026 · FAQ

Who is projected to win the AFC West in 2026?
Denver Broncos are our projected AFC West winner, taking the division in 42% of 10,000 simulations at 9.8 expected wins.
What are the projected AFC West standings for 2026?
By expected wins: 1. Denver Broncos (9.8), 2. Kansas City Chiefs (9.1), 3. Los Angeles Chargers (8.6), 4. Las Vegas Raiders (6.1).
Which AFC West teams make the playoffs in 2026?
Denver Broncos (68%), Kansas City Chiefs (55%) are projected above 50% to reach the playoffs.

OTHER 2026 DIVISION RACES

AFC EASTAFC NORTHAFC SOUTHNFC EASTNFC NORTHNFC SOUTHNFC WESTALL 32 TEAMS →
Offseason priors from 10,000 simulations of the real 2026 schedule; team strength starts from regressed 2025 EPA and does not yet know free agency, the draft, or injuries. In-season odds take over in September. Projection by Noah Owsiany, M.S. Business Analytics.