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AFC
AFC · 2026 DIVISION RACE

AFC East 2026

We project the Bills to win the AFC East in 56% of simulations, ahead of the Patriots at 32%. Full projected order of finish below.

Bills
PROJECTED WINNER
56%
DIVISION ODDS
10.3
BILLS PROJ WINS
2
PROJ PLAYOFF TEAMS
10,000 SIMULATIONS · REAL 2026 SCHEDULE

PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH

BY EXPECTED WINS · 10,000 SIMS
#TEAMPROJ WRANGEDIV ODDSPLAYOFF
1
Buffalo Bills
BUF
Bills
10.37–1356%78%
2
New England Patriots
NE
Patriots
9.36–1232%60%
3
Miami Dolphins
MIA
Dolphins
7.14–109%23%
4
New York Jets
NYJ
Jets
6.13–93%10%

AFC EAST 2026 · FAQ

Who is projected to win the AFC East in 2026?
Buffalo Bills are our projected AFC East winner, taking the division in 56% of 10,000 simulations at 10.3 expected wins.
What are the projected AFC East standings for 2026?
By expected wins: 1. Buffalo Bills (10.3), 2. New England Patriots (9.3), 3. Miami Dolphins (7.1), 4. New York Jets (6.1).
Which AFC East teams make the playoffs in 2026?
Buffalo Bills (78%), New England Patriots (60%) are projected above 50% to reach the playoffs.

OTHER 2026 DIVISION RACES

AFC NORTHAFC SOUTHAFC WESTNFC EASTNFC NORTHNFC SOUTHNFC WESTALL 32 TEAMS →
Offseason priors from 10,000 simulations of the real 2026 schedule; team strength starts from regressed 2025 EPA and does not yet know free agency, the draft, or injuries. In-season odds take over in September. Projection by Noah Owsiany, M.S. Business Analytics.
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