Skip to content
NoPunt
This Week
Predictions
Start hereHow it worksThree models vote on every game. We publish the method, the calibration and every miss.Read the methodology →
The games
Game PredictionsLive Win ProbabilityAll 32 TeamsCompare Two Teams
2026 season
Projections HubPlayer ProjectionsPlayoff PictureSuper Bowl OddsAward Odds
Where teams stand
StandingsPower RankingsPlayoff OddsStrength of ScheduleRemaining Schedule
The model
MethodologyModel HealthCalibration, in publicModel vs MarketOur Wins vs Vegas
Betting
Start hereThe EdgeThe short list of games the model flags as bets, with unit sizing and the price we would take.See this week’s Edge →
The Edge
This Week’s EdgeFlagged bets, ProModel EdgesBankroll & Sizing
Markets
Game TotalsPlayer PropsSame-Game Parlay
Pools
Survivor PicksRanked by win probabilityCirca SurvivorEntries alive + availabilityPick'em PicksEvery game, straight upConfidence Pool PicksPoints + expected pointsHow Pools Work
Getting sharper
Expected ValueClosing Line ValueWhat ATS Means
Fantasy
Start hereFantasy HubSync your league and get lineups, trade grades and waiver targets under your exact scoring.Connect a league →
Your week
Projections & Start/SitFantasy HubSync your leagueDefense vs Position
Players
Stat LeadersPlayer RatingsNoPunt Player RatingNext Gen StatsAdvanced Stats
Context
Coaching TendenciesSeason OutlookMost Dramatic Games
Results
Learn
Start hereNew here?Eleven plain-English guides, from what a spread is to how closing line value works.Start with the basics →
Betting basics
All GuidesHow Spreads WorkOdds ExplainedBankroll ManagementBetting CalculatorsFree, no login
The game
What is EPAStats GlossaryPower Rankings ExplainedHow Standings WorkHow Playoffs Work
NoPunt
About NoPuntBlogFull LedgerLedger ExplorerFilter and sort, Pro
For developers
Public JSON APIData ExportsCSV, Pro
GO PRO
NoPunt

Every NFL pick on the record, win or lose. We publish live picks before kickoff. We track every loss. The receipts are all here.

Get every pick before kickoff.

GO PRO

PICKS

This WeekThe EdgeSurvivor PicksPick’em PicksConfidence Pool PicksCirca SurvivorTrack RecordTeamsCompareStandingsPower RankingsPlayoff Odds2026 Projections2026 Playoff Picture2026 Super Bowl Odds2026 Game Predictions

ANALYTICS

FantasyDefenseCoachingGame TotalsPlayer PropsModel EdgeStat LeadersPlayer RatingsSGP BuilderSchedule StrengthSeason OutlookSeason AwardsSeason ReviewModel Performance

LEARN

NFL SpreadsBetting OddsATS ExplainedEPA in FootballStats GlossaryAbout

MORE

Go ProDashboardPick LedgerMethodologyModel HonestyData ExportsAPI DocsNFL Data API
© 2026 NoPunt. Not a sportsbook. Not financial advice. For entertainment only, no guaranteed outcomes. 21+. Gambling problem? NY: 1-877-8-HOPENY. Elsewhere: 1-800-MY-RESET.
PrivacyTermsAPI
AFC
AFC · 2026 DIVISION RACE

AFC South 2026

We project the Texans to win the AFC South in 33% of simulations, ahead of the Jaguars at 31%. Full projected order of finish below.

Texans
PROJECTED WINNER
33%
DIVISION ODDS
9.1
TEXANS PROJ WINS
3
PROJ PLAYOFF TEAMS
10,000 SIMULATIONS · REAL 2026 SCHEDULE

PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH

BY EXPECTED WINS · 10,000 SIMS
#TEAMPROJ WRANGEDIV ODDSPLAYOFF
1
Houston Texans
HOU
Texans
9.16–1233%57%
2
Jacksonville Jaguars
JAX
Jaguars
9.06–1231%54%
3
Indianapolis Colts
IND
Colts
9.06–1232%53%
4
Tennessee Titans
TEN
Titans
6.03–94%10%

AFC SOUTH 2026 · FAQ

Who is projected to win the AFC South in 2026?
Houston Texans are our projected AFC South winner, taking the division in 33% of 10,000 simulations at 9.1 expected wins.
What are the projected AFC South standings for 2026?
By expected wins: 1. Houston Texans (9.1), 2. Jacksonville Jaguars (9.0), 3. Indianapolis Colts (9.0), 4. Tennessee Titans (6.0).
Which AFC South teams make the playoffs in 2026?
Houston Texans (57%), Jacksonville Jaguars (54%), Indianapolis Colts (53%) are projected above 50% to reach the playoffs.

OTHER 2026 DIVISION RACES

AFC EASTAFC NORTHAFC WESTNFC EASTNFC NORTHNFC SOUTHNFC WESTALL 32 TEAMS →
Offseason priors from 10,000 simulations of the real 2026 schedule; team strength starts from regressed 2025 EPA and does not yet know free agency, the draft, or injuries. In-season odds take over in September. Projection by Noah Owsiany, M.S. Business Analytics.
Before kickoff

Get the model's picks every week, free

Every Wednesday the model picks every game and emails the slate before kickoff. Every pick is graded in public, wins and losses.