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AFC
AFC · 2026 DIVISION RACE

AFC South 2026

We project the Texans to win the AFC South in 33% of simulations, ahead of the Jaguars at 31%. Full projected order of finish below.

Texans
PROJECTED WINNER
33%
DIVISION ODDS
9.1
TEXANS PROJ WINS
3
PROJ PLAYOFF TEAMS
10,000 SIMULATIONS · REAL 2026 SCHEDULE

PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH

BY EXPECTED WINS · 10,000 SIMS
#TEAMPROJ WRANGEDIV ODDSPLAYOFF
1
Houston Texans
HOU
Texans
9.16–1233%57%
2
Jacksonville Jaguars
JAX
Jaguars
9.06–1231%54%
3
Indianapolis Colts
IND
Colts
9.06–1232%53%
4
Tennessee Titans
TEN
Titans
6.03–94%10%

AFC SOUTH 2026 · FAQ

Who is projected to win the AFC South in 2026?
Houston Texans are our projected AFC South winner, taking the division in 33% of 10,000 simulations at 9.1 expected wins.
What are the projected AFC South standings for 2026?
By expected wins: 1. Houston Texans (9.1), 2. Jacksonville Jaguars (9.0), 3. Indianapolis Colts (9.0), 4. Tennessee Titans (6.0).
Which AFC South teams make the playoffs in 2026?
Houston Texans (57%), Jacksonville Jaguars (54%), Indianapolis Colts (53%) are projected above 50% to reach the playoffs.

OTHER 2026 DIVISION RACES

AFC EASTAFC NORTHAFC WESTNFC EASTNFC NORTHNFC SOUTHNFC WESTALL 32 TEAMS →
Offseason priors from 10,000 simulations of the real 2026 schedule; team strength starts from regressed 2025 EPA and does not yet know free agency, the draft, or injuries. In-season odds take over in September. Projection by Noah Owsiany, M.S. Business Analytics.