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LAC
AFC WEST · 2026 PROJECTION

Los Angeles Chargers 2026

The model projects the Chargers at 8.9 wins (14th in the league) — a fade from their 11-win 2025. Denver Broncos open as the model's AFC West favorite.

8.9
PROJ WINS (6–12)
49%
PLAYOFF ODDS
25%
WIN AFC WEST
3.1%
SUPER BOWL
10,000 SIMULATIONS · REAL 2026 SCHEDULE · POWER RATING #13

WIN DISTRIBUTION

P(EXACT WIN TOTAL) ACROSS 10,000 SIMS
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
AMBER = 80% RANGE (6–12 WINS)

PLAYOFF SEED ODDS

AFC SEEDS 1–7
#1 (BYE)
5.2%
#2 SEED
6.5%
#3 SEED
7.3%
#4 SEED
6.1%
#5 SEED
7.1%
#6 SEED
8.6%
#7 SEED
8.6%
MISS
50.6%

2026 SCHEDULE

8TH-HARDEST SLATE · OPP RATING = REGRESSED 2025 EPA
HARDEST STRETCH
Weeks 3–5
Bills · Seahawks · Broncos
REST EDGES (3+ DAYS)
2 edges · 6 deficits
Rested: wk 8, 16. Short: wk 3, 6, 9, 10, 12, 14.
SCHEDULE STRENGTH
8th hardest of 32
Avg opponent rating +0.008 EPA/play
WKOPPONENTSITEOPP RATINGOPP PROJ WREST
1
Arizona Cardinals
ARI
Cardinals
HOME-0.0537.0—
2
Las Vegas Raiders
LV
Raiders
HOME-0.1205.5—
3
Buffalo Bills
BUF
Bills
AWAY+0.07610.0-3d
4
Seattle Seahawks
SEA
Seahawks
AWAY+0.07510.1—
5
Denver Broncos
DEN
Broncos
HOME+0.06910.0—
6
Kansas City Chiefs
KC
Chiefs
AWAY+0.0289.0-7d
8
Los Angeles Rams
LAR
Rams
AWAY+0.10310.8+7d
9
Houston Texans
HOU
Texans
HOME+0.0599.9-7d
10
Baltimore Ravens
BAL
Ravens
AWAY+0.0058.9-3d
11
New York Jets
NYJ
Jets
HOME-0.1375.3-1d
12
New England Patriots
NE
Patriots
HOME+0.10310.7-7d
13
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
TB
Buccaneers
AWAY-0.0118.4+1d
14
Las Vegas Raiders
LV
Raiders
AWAY-0.1205.5-7d
15
San Francisco 49ers
SF
49ers
HOME+0.0098.6—
16
Miami Dolphins
MIA
Dolphins
AWAY-0.0527.0+3d
17
Kansas City Chiefs
KC
Chiefs
HOME+0.0289.0—
18
Denver Broncos
DEN
Broncos
AWAY+0.06910.0—

HOW THE MODEL DID ON LAC IN 2025

GRADED PICKS · 2025 SEASON
11-6
MODEL ON LAC GAMES
9-4
WHEN WE BACKED THEM
2-2
WHEN WE FADED THEM
11-6
LAC 2025 RECORD
Every one of these picks is graded on the LAC team page, game by game.
ALL 2026 PROJECTIONSLAC ANALYTICS2025 STANDINGSMETHODOLOGY
NOTE
Offseason priors from 10,000 simulations of the real 2026 schedule. Team strength starts at half of final-2025 net EPA/play with offseason noise added; it does not yet know about free agency, the draft, or injuries. In-season odds take over in September. Full details on the methodology page.