How many games are the Rams projected to win in 2026?

9.9 wins on average across 10,000 simulations of the real 2026 schedule, with an 80% range of 7 to 13 wins.

What are the Rams' 2026 playoff odds?

67% to make the playoffs, 40% to win the NFC West, and 6.7% to win the Super Bowl.

How hard is the Rams' 2026 schedule?

The 4th-hardest in the league by average opponent strength, with the toughest stretch coming in weeks 3-5 (Denver Broncos, Philadelphia Eagles, Buffalo Bills).

What is the Rams' expected win total and projected record for 2026?

An expected 9.9 wins, which projects to a 10-7 record over the 17-game schedule. The DraftKings season win total (over/under) is 11.5, so our model sits 1.6 below the market.

Is this an analyst projection for the Rams in 2026?

Yes. It is our data-driven analysis: 9.9 expected wins from 10,000 simulations of the real schedule, not a poll of pundits, sitting next to the DraftKings win total of 11.5. We show our number next to the market's line so you can see exactly where the two agree and where they differ.

Los Angeles Rams 2026 Win Total: 9.9 Wins

WIN DISTRIBUTION

P(EXACT WIN TOTAL) ACROSS 10,000 SIMS

AMBER = 80% RANGE (7–13 WINS)

PLAYOFF SEED ODDS

NFC SEEDS 1–7

#1 (BYE)13.0%

#2 SEED11.7%

#3 SEED9.3%

#4 SEED6.0%

#5 SEED10.1%

#6 SEED9.2%

#7 SEED7.8%

MISS33.0%

2026 SCHEDULE

4TH-HARDEST SLATE · OPP RATING = REGRESSED 2025 EPA

HARDEST STRETCH

Weeks 3–5

Broncos · Eagles · Bills

REST EDGES (3+ DAYS)

2 edges · 2 deficits

Rested: wk 2, 14. Short: wk 8, 15.

SCHEDULE STRENGTH

4th hardest of 32

Avg opponent rating +0.016 EPA/play · all 32 ranked

WK	OPPONENT	SITE	OPP RATING	OPP PROJ W	REST	PREVIEW
1	SF 49ers	HOME	+0.035	9.1	—	VIEW →
2	NYG Giants	HOME	-0.045	7.2	+3d	VIEW →
3	DEN Broncos	AWAY	+0.056	9.8	-1d	VIEW →
4	PHI Eagles	AWAY	+0.060	10.1	+1d	VIEW →
5	BUF Bills	HOME	+0.094	10.3	—	VIEW →
6	ARI Cardinals	HOME	-0.030	7.5	-1d	VIEW →
7	LV Raiders	AWAY	-0.090	6.1	—	VIEW →
8	LAC Chargers	HOME	+0.023	8.6	-7d	VIEW →
9	WAS Commanders	AWAY	-0.003	8.4	—	VIEW →
10	ARI Cardinals	AWAY	-0.030	7.5	—	VIEW →
12	GB Packers	HOME	+0.058	9.5	—	VIEW →
13	KC Chiefs	HOME	+0.034	9.1	+1d	VIEW →
14	SF 49ers	AWAY	+0.035	9.1	+3d	VIEW →
15	DAL Cowboys	HOME	-0.019	7.8	-6d	VIEW →
16	SEA Seahawks	AWAY	+0.043	9.3	-1d	VIEW →
17	TB Buccaneers	AWAY	+0.013	8.8	+2d	VIEW →
18	SEA Seahawks	HOME	+0.043	9.3	—	VIEW →

HOW THE MODEL DID ON LAR IN 2025

GRADED PICKS · 2025 SEASON

13-4

MODEL ON LAR GAMES

12-4

WHEN WE BACKED THEM

1-0

WHEN WE PICKED AGAINST

12-5

LAR 2025 RECORD

Every one of these picks is graded on the LAR team page, game by game.

ALL 2026 PROJECTIONS NFC WEST RACE PLAYOFF PICTURE LAR ANALYTICS METHODOLOGY

NOTE

Team strength blends each team’s offense and defense efficiency (EPA per play) over recent seasons, weighted toward the most recent, regressed toward the league average, and adjusted for the team’s projected starting quarterback. Offseason priors from 10,000 simulations of the real 2026 schedule; it does not yet know about free agency, the draft, or injuries. In-season odds take over once real games are played. Full details on the methodology page. Projection by Noah Owsiany, M.S. Business Analytics.

Before kickoff

Get the model's Week 1 picks, free, before kickoff

You're looking at the preseason projections. Once the season starts, the model grades a pick on every game, and every pick is tracked in public. Get them in your inbox the Wednesday before Week 1.