Falcons
2026 MATCHUP PROJECTION
Chiefs at Falcons
Offseason model projection plus deep team and player data. Priors only — before free agency, the draft, and injuries.
51%
Chiefs WIN
22–22
PROJ SCORE
Chiefs -0.3
PROJ MARGIN
Chiefs WIN%Falcons WIN%
51%49%
PROJECTED MARGIN
Likely final margins (SD 13.5 pts). Each team's shaded area is its win probability; the marker is our projected margin.
TEAM EFFICIENCY · 2025
0.055Net EPA / play-0.018
0.035Offense EPA / play-0.021
-0.020Defense EPA / play-0.004
0.445Offense success %0.437
0.436Defense success %0.446
BY THE NUMBERS
| #14 | Power rank | #19 |
| 0.028 | Model rating | -0.009 |
| 9.0 | Proj. 2026 wins | 8.6 |
| 51% | Playoff odds | 43% |
| 0.040 | Pass EPA/play | -0.013 |
| 0.027 | Rush EPA/play | -0.031 |
| 362/328 | 2025 record pts | 353/401 |
| 0.002 | Strength of sched | -0.011 |
KEY PLAYERS · 2025
Kansas City Chiefs
| Player | Yds | PPR |
|---|---|---|
| P.Mahomes | 3587 | 286 |
| T.Kelce | 852 | 193 |
| R.Rice | 591 | 150 |
| K.Hunt | 754 | 145 |
| M.Brown | 587 | 138 |
| X.Worthy | 619 | 110 |
Atlanta Falcons
| Player | Yds | PPR |
|---|---|---|
| B.Robinson |
THE EDGE — DEEP MATCHUP DATA
UNLOCK THE EDGE
Full passing / rushing / receiving splits for both rosters, the defensive matchup mismatches to target, and — once the season kicks off — injury reports and the model's exploit edges for this exact game.
Go Pro. Get the Edge.RECENT MEETINGS
| Season · Wk | Matchup | Final |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 · W3 | Chiefs @ Falcons | 22–17 |
| 2020 · W16 | Falcons @ Chiefs | 14–17 |
2026 offseason priors from the season Monte-Carlo model — they know the schedule but not free agency, the draft, or injuries. In-season projections take over in September. Full method on the methodology page. Past results. Not financial advice.