Chiefs
2026 MATCHUP PROJECTION
Cardinals at Chiefs
Offseason model projection plus deep team and player data. Priors only — before free agency, the draft, and injuries.
66%
Chiefs WIN
19–25
PROJ SCORE
Chiefs -5.6
PROJ MARGIN
Cardinals WIN%Chiefs WIN%
34%66%
PROJECTED MARGIN
Likely final margins (SD 13.5 pts). Each team's shaded area is its win probability; the marker is our projected margin.
TEAM EFFICIENCY · 2025
-0.107Net EPA / play0.055
-0.018Offense EPA / play0.035
0.088Defense EPA / play-0.020
0.430Offense success %0.445
0.485Defense success %0.436
BY THE NUMBERS
| #27 | Power rank | #14 |
| -0.053 | Model rating | 0.028 |
| 7.0 | Proj. 2026 wins | 9.0 |
| 17% | Playoff odds | 51% |
| 0.002 | Pass EPA/play | 0.040 |
| -0.059 | Rush EPA/play | 0.027 |
| 355/488 | 2025 record pts | 362/328 |
| 0.011 | Strength of sched | 0.002 |
KEY PLAYERS · 2025
Arizona Cardinals
| Player | Yds | PPR |
|---|---|---|
| T.McBride | 1239 | 316 |
| J.Brissett | 3366 | 227 |
| Mi.Wilson | 1006 | 221 |
| M.Harrison | 608 | 128 |
| M.Carter | 600 | 99 |
| Z.Knight | 429 | 93 |
Kansas City Chiefs
| Player | Yds | PPR |
|---|---|---|
THE EDGE — DEEP MATCHUP DATA
UNLOCK THE EDGE
Full passing / rushing / receiving splits for both rosters, the defensive matchup mismatches to target, and — once the season kicks off — injury reports and the model's exploit edges for this exact game.
Go Pro. Get the Edge.RECENT MEETINGS
| Season · Wk | Matchup | Final |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 · W1 | Chiefs @ Cardinals | 44–21 |
2026 offseason priors from the season Monte-Carlo model — they know the schedule but not free agency, the draft, or injuries. In-season projections take over in September. Full method on the methodology page. Past results. Not financial advice.