Dolphins
2026 MATCHUP PROJECTION
Bengals at Dolphins
Offseason model projection plus deep team and player data. Priors only — before free agency, the draft, and injuries.
57%
Dolphins WIN
21–23
PROJ SCORE
Dolphins -2.4
PROJ MARGIN
Bengals WIN%Dolphins WIN%
43%57%
PROJECTED MARGIN
Likely final margins (SD 13.5 pts). Each team's shaded area is its win probability; the marker is our projected margin.
TEAM EFFICIENCY · 2025
-0.138Net EPA / play-0.105
-0.009Offense EPA / play-0.017
0.130Defense EPA / play0.088
0.455Offense success %0.419
0.478Defense success %0.485
BY THE NUMBERS
| #29 | Power rank | #25 |
| -0.069 | Model rating | -0.052 |
| 7.2 | Proj. 2026 wins | 7.0 |
| 21% | Playoff odds | 18% |
| -0.027 | Pass EPA/play | -0.009 |
| 0.025 | Rush EPA/play | -0.026 |
| 414/492 | 2025 record pts | 347/424 |
| -0.013 | Strength of sched | 0.010 |
KEY PLAYERS · 2025
Cincinnati Bengals
| Player | Yds | PPR |
|---|---|---|
| J.Chase | 1426 | 314 |
| C.Brown | 1456 | 283 |
| T.Higgins | 846 | 212 |
| J.Burrow | 1809 | 134 |
| J.Flacco | 1664 | 121 |
| A.Iosivas | 449 | 90 |
Miami Dolphins
| Player | Yds | PPR |
|---|---|---|
| D.Achane |
THE EDGE — DEEP MATCHUP DATA
UNLOCK THE EDGE
Full passing / rushing / receiving splits for both rosters, the defensive matchup mismatches to target, and — once the season kicks off — injury reports and the model's exploit edges for this exact game.
Go Pro. Get the Edge.RECENT MEETINGS
| Season · Wk | Matchup | Final |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 · W16 | Bengals @ Dolphins | 45–21 |
| 2022 · W4 | Dolphins @ Bengals | 15–27 |
| 2020 · W13 | Bengals @ Dolphins | 7–19 |
2026 offseason priors from the season Monte-Carlo model — they know the schedule but not free agency, the draft, or injuries. In-season projections take over in September. Full method on the methodology page. Past results. Not financial advice.