Every Week 6underdog with the market’s spread, moneyline, win probability and the points it pays in a dog pool. The market’s numbers, not a bet.
Updated · Week 6 2026 picks
Sorted by the market’s win probability for the dog. Win % is each book’s moneyline with its margin removed (additive), averaged across books. Payout is the profit on a 100 stake at the median moneyline, the points a payout-scored pool awards. Updated through the day; games that have kicked off drop off.
No underdogs to show for Week 6: books have not posted moneylines yet, or every game has kicked off. Updated through the day; games that have kicked off drop off.
The board above is the market’s view. Pro ranks every dog by our model’s win probability and shows our win % for each dog and its expected points for a dog pool.
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A dog pool pays for upsets, so the question is never just “who might win.” A long shot pays more when it wins and wins less often. Expected points are a dog’s win probability times its payout, so a short-priced dog and a long one can only be compared by multiplying the two. The table above gives you the market’s win % and the payout to do that with.
Many pools bar reusing a team. The dog you like this week may be the better dog in a softer matchup in a month, so a pick that is only slightly better now can be the wrong one to spend.
Some pools score on covering the spread, not winning outright. A dog can lose the game and still cover, so check which your pool uses before you read the payout column.
Playing survivor instead? See our survivor picks, ranked by win probability with the teams to save.
SURVIVOR PICKS →Prices and win probabilities on this board are the betting market’s. Past results. Not financial advice.