Bills
2026 MATCHUP PROJECTION
Ravens at Bills
Offseason model projection plus deep team and player data. Priors only — before free agency, the draft, and injuries.
65%
Bills WIN
20–25
PROJ SCORE
Bills -5.1
PROJ MARGIN
Ravens WIN%Bills WIN%
35%65%
PROJECTED MARGIN
Likely final margins (SD 13.5 pts). Each team's shaded area is its win probability; the marker is our projected margin.
TEAM EFFICIENCY · 2025
0.010Net EPA / play0.152
0.034Offense EPA / play0.136
0.024Defense EPA / play-0.016
0.446Offense success %0.485
0.442Defense success %0.424
BY THE NUMBERS
| #16 | Power rank | #3 |
| 0.005 | Model rating | 0.076 |
| 8.9 | Proj. 2026 wins | 10.0 |
| 49% | Playoff odds | 70% |
| -0.035 | Pass EPA/play | 0.160 |
| 0.100 | Rush EPA/play | 0.110 |
| 424/398 | 2025 record pts | 481/365 |
| -0.013 | Strength of sched | 0.006 |
KEY PLAYERS · 2025
Baltimore Ravens
| Player | Yds | PPR |
|---|---|---|
| D.Henry | 1745 | 280 |
| Z.Flowers | 1273 | 243 |
| L.Jackson | 2549 | 215 |
| M.Andrews | 470 | 131 |
| D.Hopkins | 330 | 67 |
| J.Hill | 262 | 65 |
Buffalo Bills
| Player | Yds | PPR |
|---|---|---|
| J.Allen |
THE EDGE — DEEP MATCHUP DATA
UNLOCK THE EDGE
Full passing / rushing / receiving splits for both rosters, the defensive matchup mismatches to target, and — once the season kicks off — injury reports and the model's exploit edges for this exact game.
Go Pro. Get the Edge.RECENT MEETINGS
| Season · Wk | Matchup | Final |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 · W1 | Ravens @ Bills | 40–41 |
| 2024 · W4 | Bills @ Ravens | 10–35 |
| 2022 · W4 | Bills @ Ravens | 23–20 |
2026 offseason priors from the season Monte-Carlo model — they know the schedule but not free agency, the draft, or injuries. In-season projections take over in September. Full method on the methodology page. Past results. Not financial advice.