Steelers
2026 MATCHUP PROJECTION
Ravens at Steelers
Offseason model projection plus deep team and player data. Priors only — before free agency, the draft, and injuries.
54%
Steelers WIN
22–23
PROJ SCORE
Steelers -1.4
PROJ MARGIN
Ravens WIN%Steelers WIN%
46%54%
PROJECTED MARGIN
Likely final margins (SD 13.5 pts). Each team's shaded area is its win probability; the marker is our projected margin.
TEAM EFFICIENCY · 2025
0.010Net EPA / play0.007
0.034Offense EPA / play0.025
0.024Defense EPA / play0.018
0.446Offense success %0.440
0.442Defense success %0.433
BY THE NUMBERS
| #16 | Power rank | #17 |
| 0.005 | Model rating | 0.003 |
| 8.9 | Proj. 2026 wins | 8.6 |
| 49% | Playoff odds | 46% |
| -0.035 | Pass EPA/play | 0.029 |
| 0.100 | Rush EPA/play | 0.019 |
| 424/398 | 2025 record pts | 397/387 |
| -0.013 | Strength of sched | -0.003 |
KEY PLAYERS · 2025
Baltimore Ravens
| Player | Yds | PPR |
|---|---|---|
| D.Henry | 1745 | 280 |
| Z.Flowers | 1273 | 243 |
| L.Jackson | 2549 | 215 |
| M.Andrews | 470 | 131 |
| D.Hopkins | 330 | 67 |
| J.Hill | 262 | 65 |
Pittsburgh Steelers
| Player | Yds | PPR |
|---|---|---|
| A.Rodgers |
THE EDGE — DEEP MATCHUP DATA
UNLOCK THE EDGE
Full passing / rushing / receiving splits for both rosters, the defensive matchup mismatches to target, and — once the season kicks off — injury reports and the model's exploit edges for this exact game.
Go Pro. Get the Edge.RECENT MEETINGS
| Season · Wk | Matchup | Final |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 · W18 | Ravens @ Steelers | 24–26 |
| 2025 · W14 | Steelers @ Ravens | 27–22 |
| 2024 · W16 | Steelers @ Ravens | 17–34 |
| 2024 · W11 | Ravens @ Steelers | 16–18 |
| 2023 · W18 | Steelers @ Ravens | 17–10 |
| 2023 · W5 | Ravens @ Steelers | 10–17 |
2026 offseason priors from the season Monte-Carlo model — they know the schedule but not free agency, the draft, or injuries. In-season projections take over in September. Full method on the methodology page. Past results. Not financial advice.