Dolphins
2026 MATCHUP PROJECTION
Bills at Dolphins
Offseason model projection plus deep team and player data. Priors only — before free agency, the draft, and injuries.
64%
Bills WIN
25–20
PROJ SCORE
Bills -5.0
PROJ MARGIN
Bills WIN%Dolphins WIN%
64%36%
PROJECTED MARGIN
Likely final margins (SD 13.5 pts). Each team's shaded area is its win probability; the marker is our projected margin.
TEAM EFFICIENCY · 2025
0.152Net EPA / play-0.105
0.136Offense EPA / play-0.017
-0.016Defense EPA / play0.088
0.485Offense success %0.419
0.424Defense success %0.485
BY THE NUMBERS
| #3 | Power rank | #25 |
| 0.076 | Model rating | -0.052 |
| 10.0 | Proj. 2026 wins | 7.0 |
| 70% | Playoff odds | 18% |
| 0.160 | Pass EPA/play | -0.009 |
| 0.110 | Rush EPA/play | -0.026 |
| 481/365 | 2025 record pts | 347/424 |
| 0.006 | Strength of sched | 0.010 |
KEY PLAYERS · 2025
Buffalo Bills
| Player | Yds | PPR |
|---|---|---|
| J.Allen | 3668 | 365 |
| J.Cook | 1912 | 302 |
| K.Shakir | 724 | 166 |
| D.Kincaid | 571 | 126 |
| D.Knox | 417 | 104 |
| K.Coleman | 404 | 102 |
Miami Dolphins
| Player | Yds | PPR |
|---|---|---|
| D.Achane |
THE EDGE — DEEP MATCHUP DATA
UNLOCK THE EDGE
Full passing / rushing / receiving splits for both rosters, the defensive matchup mismatches to target, and — once the season kicks off — injury reports and the model's exploit edges for this exact game.
Go Pro. Get the Edge.RECENT MEETINGS
| Season · Wk | Matchup | Final |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 · W10 | Bills @ Dolphins | 13–30 |
| 2025 · W3 | Dolphins @ Bills | 21–31 |
| 2024 · W9 | Dolphins @ Bills | 27–30 |
| 2024 · W2 | Bills @ Dolphins | 31–10 |
| 2023 · W18 | Bills @ Dolphins | 21–14 |
| 2023 · W4 | Dolphins @ Bills | 20–48 |
2026 offseason priors from the season Monte-Carlo model — they know the schedule but not free agency, the draft, or injuries. In-season projections take over in September. Full method on the methodology page. Past results. Not financial advice.