Jets
2026 MATCHUP PROJECTION
Bills at Jets
Offseason model projection plus deep team and player data. Priors only — before free agency, the draft, and injuries.
75%
Bills WIN
27–18
PROJ SCORE
Bills -9.1
PROJ MARGIN
Bills WIN%Jets WIN%
75%25%
PROJECTED MARGIN
Likely final margins (SD 13.5 pts). Each team's shaded area is its win probability; the marker is our projected margin.
TEAM EFFICIENCY · 2025
0.152Net EPA / play-0.274
0.136Offense EPA / play-0.127
-0.016Defense EPA / play0.147
0.485Offense success %0.407
0.424Defense success %0.456
BY THE NUMBERS
| #3 | Power rank | #32 |
| 0.076 | Model rating | -0.137 |
| 10.0 | Proj. 2026 wins | 5.3 |
| 70% | Playoff odds | 4% |
| 0.160 | Pass EPA/play | -0.180 |
| 0.110 | Rush EPA/play | -0.061 |
| 481/365 | 2025 record pts | 300/503 |
| 0.006 | Strength of sched | 0.008 |
KEY PLAYERS · 2025
Buffalo Bills
| Player | Yds | PPR |
|---|---|---|
| J.Allen | 3668 | 365 |
| J.Cook | 1912 | 302 |
| K.Shakir | 724 | 166 |
| D.Kincaid | 571 | 126 |
| D.Knox | 417 | 104 |
| K.Coleman | 404 | 102 |
New York Jets
| Player | Yds | PPR |
|---|---|---|
| B.Hall |
THE EDGE — DEEP MATCHUP DATA
UNLOCK THE EDGE
Full passing / rushing / receiving splits for both rosters, the defensive matchup mismatches to target, and — once the season kicks off — injury reports and the model's exploit edges for this exact game.
Go Pro. Get the Edge.RECENT MEETINGS
| Season · Wk | Matchup | Final |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 · W18 | Jets @ Bills | 8–35 |
| 2025 · W2 | Bills @ Jets | 30–10 |
| 2024 · W17 | Jets @ Bills | 14–40 |
| 2024 · W6 | Bills @ Jets | 23–20 |
| 2023 · W11 | Jets @ Bills | 6–32 |
| 2023 · W1 | Bills @ Jets | 16–22 |
2026 offseason priors from the season Monte-Carlo model — they know the schedule but not free agency, the draft, or injuries. In-season projections take over in September. Full method on the methodology page. Past results. Not financial advice.