Buccaneers
2026 MATCHUP PROJECTION
Panthers at Buccaneers
Offseason model projection plus deep team and player data. Priors only — before free agency, the draft, and injuries.
61%
Buccaneers WIN
20–24
PROJ SCORE
Buccaneers -3.7
PROJ MARGIN
Panthers WIN%Buccaneers WIN%
39%61%
PROJECTED MARGIN
Likely final margins (SD 13.5 pts). Each team's shaded area is its win probability; the marker is our projected margin.
TEAM EFFICIENCY · 2025
-0.107Net EPA / play-0.022
-0.039Offense EPA / play-0.009
0.067Defense EPA / play0.013
0.431Offense success %0.423
0.443Defense success %0.449
BY THE NUMBERS
| #26 | Power rank | #20 |
| -0.053 | Model rating | -0.011 |
| 7.1 | Proj. 2026 wins | 8.4 |
| 21% | Playoff odds | 40% |
| -0.050 | Pass EPA/play | -0.026 |
| -0.026 | Rush EPA/play | 0.014 |
| 311/380 | 2025 record pts | 380/411 |
| 0.008 | Strength of sched | -0.003 |
KEY PLAYERS · 2025
Carolina Panthers
| Player | Yds | PPR |
|---|---|---|
| B.Young | 3011 | 218 |
| R.Dowdle | 1373 | 216 |
| T.McMillan | 1014 | 213 |
| C.Hubbard | 734 | 125 |
| J.Coker | 394 | 90 |
| X.Legette | 363 | 89 |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
| Player | Yds | PPR |
|---|---|---|
THE EDGE — DEEP MATCHUP DATA
UNLOCK THE EDGE
Full passing / rushing / receiving splits for both rosters, the defensive matchup mismatches to target, and — once the season kicks off — injury reports and the model's exploit edges for this exact game.
Go Pro. Get the Edge.RECENT MEETINGS
| Season · Wk | Matchup | Final |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 · W18 | Panthers @ Buccaneers | 14–16 |
| 2025 · W16 | Buccaneers @ Panthers | 20–23 |
| 2024 · W17 | Panthers @ Buccaneers | 14–48 |
| 2024 · W13 | Buccaneers @ Panthers | 26–23 |
| 2023 · W18 | Buccaneers @ Panthers | 9–0 |
| 2023 · W13 | Panthers @ Buccaneers | 18–21 |
2026 offseason priors from the season Monte-Carlo model — they know the schedule but not free agency, the draft, or injuries. In-season projections take over in September. Full method on the methodology page. Past results. Not financial advice.