Packers
2026 MATCHUP PROJECTION
Bears at Packers
Offseason model projection plus deep team and player data. Priors only — before free agency, the draft, and injuries.
56%
Packers WIN
21–23
PROJ SCORE
Packers -2.0
PROJ MARGIN
Bears WIN%Packers WIN%
44%56%
PROJECTED MARGIN
Likely final margins (SD 13.5 pts). Each team's shaded area is its win probability; the marker is our projected margin.
TEAM EFFICIENCY · 2025
0.061Net EPA / play0.082
0.080Offense EPA / play0.115
0.018Defense EPA / play0.033
0.458Offense success %0.477
0.467Defense success %0.448
BY THE NUMBERS
| #12 | Power rank | #10 |
| 0.031 | Model rating | 0.041 |
| 8.9 | Proj. 2026 wins | 9.2 |
| 48% | Playoff odds | 54% |
| 0.080 | Pass EPA/play | 0.229 |
| 0.079 | Rush EPA/play | -0.010 |
| 441/415 | 2025 record pts | 391/360 |
| 0.015 | Strength of sched | 0.010 |
KEY PLAYERS · 2025
Chicago Bears
| Player | Yds | PPR |
|---|---|---|
| C.Williams | 3942 | 318 |
| D.Swift | 1386 | 229 |
| D.Moore | 2 | 172 |
| C.Loveland | 711 | 165 |
| K.Monangai | 947 | 147 |
| R.Odunze | 661 | 146 |
Green Bay Packers
| Player | Yds | PPR |
|---|---|---|
| J.Jacobs |
THE EDGE — DEEP MATCHUP DATA
UNLOCK THE EDGE
Full passing / rushing / receiving splits for both rosters, the defensive matchup mismatches to target, and — once the season kicks off — injury reports and the model's exploit edges for this exact game.
Go Pro. Get the Edge.RECENT MEETINGS
| Season · Wk | Matchup | Final |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 · W16 | Packers @ Bears | 16–22 |
| 2025 · W14 | Bears @ Packers | 21–28 |
| 2024 · W18 | Bears @ Packers | 24–22 |
| 2024 · W11 | Packers @ Bears | 20–19 |
| 2023 · W18 | Bears @ Packers | 9–17 |
| 2023 · W1 | Packers @ Bears | 38–20 |
2026 offseason priors from the season Monte-Carlo model — they know the schedule but not free agency, the draft, or injuries. In-season projections take over in September. Full method on the methodology page. Past results. Not financial advice.