Buccaneers
2026 MATCHUP PROJECTION
Browns at Buccaneers
Offseason model projection plus deep team and player data. Priors only — before free agency, the draft, and injuries.
60%
Buccaneers WIN
21–24
PROJ SCORE
Buccaneers -3.3
PROJ MARGIN
Browns WIN%Buccaneers WIN%
40%60%
PROJECTED MARGIN
Likely final margins (SD 13.5 pts). Each team's shaded area is its win probability; the marker is our projected margin.
TEAM EFFICIENCY · 2025
-0.094Net EPA / play-0.022
-0.190Offense EPA / play-0.009
-0.096Defense EPA / play0.013
0.345Offense success %0.423
0.402Defense success %0.449
BY THE NUMBERS
| #24 | Power rank | #20 |
| -0.047 | Model rating | -0.011 |
| 8.0 | Proj. 2026 wins | 8.4 |
| 33% | Playoff odds | 40% |
| -0.288 | Pass EPA/play | -0.026 |
| -0.048 | Rush EPA/play | 0.014 |
| 279/379 | 2025 record pts | 380/411 |
| -0.028 | Strength of sched | -0.003 |
KEY PLAYERS · 2025
Cleveland Browns
| Player | Yds | PPR |
|---|---|---|
| H.Fannin | 744 | 186 |
| Q.Judkins | 998 | 170 |
| J.Jeudy | 607 | 121 |
| D.Sampson | 446 | 88 |
| D.Njoku | 293 | 86 |
| S.Sanders | 1400 | 85 |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
| Player | Yds | PPR |
|---|---|---|
| B.Mayfield |
THE EDGE — DEEP MATCHUP DATA
UNLOCK THE EDGE
Full passing / rushing / receiving splits for both rosters, the defensive matchup mismatches to target, and — once the season kicks off — injury reports and the model's exploit edges for this exact game.
Go Pro. Get the Edge.RECENT MEETINGS
| Season · Wk | Matchup | Final |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 · W12 | Buccaneers @ Browns | 17–23 |
2026 offseason priors from the season Monte-Carlo model — they know the schedule but not free agency, the draft, or injuries. In-season projections take over in September. Full method on the methodology page. Past results. Not financial advice.