49ers
2026 MATCHUP PROJECTION
Broncos at 49ers
Offseason model projection plus deep team and player data. Priors only — before free agency, the draft, and injuries.
54%
Broncos WIN
23–21
PROJ SCORE
Broncos -1.5
PROJ MARGIN
Broncos WIN%49ers WIN%
54%46%
PROJECTED MARGIN
Likely final margins (SD 13.5 pts). Each team's shaded area is its win probability; the marker is our projected margin.
TEAM EFFICIENCY · 2025
0.138Net EPA / play0.018
0.050Offense EPA / play0.088
-0.088Defense EPA / play0.070
0.442Offense success %0.483
0.367Defense success %0.485
BY THE NUMBERS
| #5 | Power rank | #15 |
| 0.069 | Model rating | 0.009 |
| 10.0 | Proj. 2026 wins | 8.6 |
| 70% | Playoff odds | 41% |
| 0.084 | Pass EPA/play | 0.159 |
| 0.000 | Rush EPA/play | -0.004 |
| 401/311 | 2025 record pts | 437/371 |
| 0.001 | Strength of sched | 0.006 |
KEY PLAYERS · 2025
Denver Broncos
| Player | Yds | PPR |
|---|---|---|
| B.Nix | 3931 | 305 |
| C.Sutton | 1017 | 220 |
| R.Harvey | 896 | 207 |
| T.Franklin | 721 | 177 |
| J.Dobbins | 809 | 116 |
| E.Engram | 468 | 103 |
San Francisco 49ers
| Player | Yds | PPR |
|---|---|---|
| C.McCaffrey |
THE EDGE — DEEP MATCHUP DATA
UNLOCK THE EDGE
Full passing / rushing / receiving splits for both rosters, the defensive matchup mismatches to target, and — once the season kicks off — injury reports and the model's exploit edges for this exact game.
Go Pro. Get the Edge.RECENT MEETINGS
| Season · Wk | Matchup | Final |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 · W3 | 49ers @ Broncos | 10–11 |
2026 offseason priors from the season Monte-Carlo model — they know the schedule but not free agency, the draft, or injuries. In-season projections take over in September. Full method on the methodology page. Past results. Not financial advice.