Buccaneers
2026 MATCHUP PROJECTION
Packers at Buccaneers
Offseason model projection plus deep team and player data. Priors only — before free agency, the draft, and injuries.
53%
Packers WIN
23–22
PROJ SCORE
Packers -1.1
PROJ MARGIN
Packers WIN%Buccaneers WIN%
53%47%
PROJECTED MARGIN
Likely final margins (SD 13.5 pts). Each team's shaded area is its win probability; the marker is our projected margin.
TEAM EFFICIENCY · 2025
0.082Net EPA / play-0.022
0.115Offense EPA / play-0.009
0.033Defense EPA / play0.013
0.477Offense success %0.423
0.448Defense success %0.449
BY THE NUMBERS
| #10 | Power rank | #20 |
| 0.041 | Model rating | -0.011 |
| 9.2 | Proj. 2026 wins | 8.4 |
| 54% | Playoff odds | 40% |
| 0.229 | Pass EPA/play | -0.026 |
| -0.010 | Rush EPA/play | 0.014 |
| 391/360 | 2025 record pts | 380/411 |
| 0.010 | Strength of sched | -0.003 |
KEY PLAYERS · 2025
Green Bay Packers
| Player | Yds | PPR |
|---|---|---|
| J.Jacobs | 1211 | 237 |
| J.Love | 3381 | 235 |
| R.Doubs | 724 | 165 |
| C.Watson | 614 | 132 |
| T.Kraft | 492 | 117 |
| E.Wilson | 595 | 95 |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
| Player | Yds | PPR |
|---|---|---|
| B.Mayfield |
THE EDGE — DEEP MATCHUP DATA
UNLOCK THE EDGE
Full passing / rushing / receiving splits for both rosters, the defensive matchup mismatches to target, and — once the season kicks off — injury reports and the model's exploit edges for this exact game.
Go Pro. Get the Edge.RECENT MEETINGS
| Season · Wk | Matchup | Final |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 · W15 | Buccaneers @ Packers | 34–20 |
| 2022 · W3 | Packers @ Buccaneers | 14–12 |
| 2020 · W6 | Packers @ Buccaneers | 10–38 |
2026 offseason priors from the season Monte-Carlo model — they know the schedule but not free agency, the draft, or injuries. In-season projections take over in September. Full method on the methodology page. Past results. Not financial advice.