Jaguars
2026 MATCHUP PROJECTION
Texans at Jaguars
Offseason model projection plus deep team and player data. Priors only — before free agency, the draft, and injuries.
56%
Jaguars WIN
21–23
PROJ SCORE
Jaguars -2.0
PROJ MARGIN
Texans WIN%Jaguars WIN%
44%56%
PROJECTED MARGIN
Likely final margins (SD 13.5 pts). Each team's shaded area is its win probability; the marker is our projected margin.
TEAM EFFICIENCY · 2025
0.118Net EPA / play0.136
-0.013Offense EPA / play0.030
-0.131Defense EPA / play-0.105
0.413Offense success %0.444
0.383Defense success %0.413
BY THE NUMBERS
| #7 | Power rank | #6 |
| 0.059 | Model rating | 0.068 |
| 9.9 | Proj. 2026 wins | 10.1 |
| 68% | Playoff odds | 70% |
| 0.036 | Pass EPA/play | 0.059 |
| -0.078 | Rush EPA/play | -0.006 |
| 404/295 | 2025 record pts | 474/336 |
| -0.006 | Strength of sched | -0.004 |
KEY PLAYERS · 2025
Houston Texans
| Player | Yds | PPR |
|---|---|---|
| N.Collins | 1132 | 226 |
| C.Stroud | 3041 | 209 |
| D.Schultz | 777 | 178 |
| W.Marks | 911 | 145 |
| J.Higgins | 525 | 130 |
| X.Hutchinson | 450 | 98 |
Jacksonville Jaguars
| Player | Yds | PPR |
|---|---|---|
THE EDGE — DEEP MATCHUP DATA
UNLOCK THE EDGE
Full passing / rushing / receiving splits for both rosters, the defensive matchup mismatches to target, and — once the season kicks off — injury reports and the model's exploit edges for this exact game.
Go Pro. Get the Edge.RECENT MEETINGS
| Season · Wk | Matchup | Final |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 · W10 | Jaguars @ Texans | 29–36 |
| 2025 · W3 | Texans @ Jaguars | 10–17 |
| 2024 · W13 | Texans @ Jaguars | 23–20 |
| 2024 · W4 | Jaguars @ Texans | 20–24 |
| 2023 · W12 | Jaguars @ Texans | 24–21 |
| 2023 · W3 | Texans @ Jaguars | 37–17 |
2026 offseason priors from the season Monte-Carlo model — they know the schedule but not free agency, the draft, or injuries. In-season projections take over in September. Full method on the methodology page. Past results. Not financial advice.