Bears
2026 MATCHUP PROJECTION
Jaguars at Bears
Offseason model projection plus deep team and player data. Priors only — before free agency, the draft, and injuries.
51%
Jaguars WIN
22–22
PROJ SCORE
Jaguars -0.4
PROJ MARGIN
Jaguars WIN%Bears WIN%
51%49%
PROJECTED MARGIN
Likely final margins (SD 13.5 pts). Each team's shaded area is its win probability; the marker is our projected margin.
TEAM EFFICIENCY · 2025
0.136Net EPA / play0.061
0.030Offense EPA / play0.080
-0.105Defense EPA / play0.018
0.444Offense success %0.458
0.413Defense success %0.467
BY THE NUMBERS
| #6 | Power rank | #12 |
| 0.068 | Model rating | 0.031 |
| 10.1 | Proj. 2026 wins | 8.9 |
| 70% | Playoff odds | 48% |
| 0.059 | Pass EPA/play | 0.080 |
| -0.006 | Rush EPA/play | 0.079 |
| 474/336 | 2025 record pts | 441/415 |
| -0.004 | Strength of sched | 0.015 |
KEY PLAYERS · 2025
Jacksonville Jaguars
| Player | Yds | PPR |
|---|---|---|
| T.Lawrence | 4007 | 338 |
| T.Etienne | 1399 | 254 |
| P.Washington | 847 | 185 |
| B.Thomas | 728 | 139 |
| B.Strange | 540 | 118 |
| J.Meyers | 496 | 108 |
Chicago Bears
| Player | Yds | PPR |
|---|---|---|
THE EDGE — DEEP MATCHUP DATA
UNLOCK THE EDGE
Full passing / rushing / receiving splits for both rosters, the defensive matchup mismatches to target, and — once the season kicks off — injury reports and the model's exploit edges for this exact game.
Go Pro. Get the Edge.RECENT MEETINGS
| Season · Wk | Matchup | Final |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 · W6 | Jaguars @ Bears | 16–35 |
| 2020 · W16 | Bears @ Jaguars | 41–17 |
2026 offseason priors from the season Monte-Carlo model — they know the schedule but not free agency, the draft, or injuries. In-season projections take over in September. Full method on the methodology page. Past results. Not financial advice.