Texans
2026 MATCHUP PROJECTION
Jaguars at Texans
Offseason model projection plus deep team and player data. Priors only — before free agency, the draft, and injuries.
53%
Texans WIN
22–23
PROJ SCORE
Texans -1.1
PROJ MARGIN
Jaguars WIN%Texans WIN%
47%53%
PROJECTED MARGIN
Likely final margins (SD 13.5 pts). Each team's shaded area is its win probability; the marker is our projected margin.
TEAM EFFICIENCY · 2025
0.136Net EPA / play0.118
0.030Offense EPA / play-0.013
-0.105Defense EPA / play-0.131
0.444Offense success %0.413
0.413Defense success %0.383
BY THE NUMBERS
| #6 | Power rank | #7 |
| 0.068 | Model rating | 0.059 |
| 10.1 | Proj. 2026 wins | 9.9 |
| 70% | Playoff odds | 68% |
| 0.059 | Pass EPA/play | 0.036 |
| -0.006 | Rush EPA/play | -0.078 |
| 474/336 | 2025 record pts | 404/295 |
| -0.004 | Strength of sched | -0.006 |
KEY PLAYERS · 2025
Jacksonville Jaguars
| Player | Yds | PPR |
|---|---|---|
| T.Lawrence | 4007 | 338 |
| T.Etienne | 1399 | 254 |
| P.Washington | 847 | 185 |
| B.Thomas | 728 | 139 |
| B.Strange | 540 | 118 |
| J.Meyers | 496 | 108 |
Houston Texans
| Player | Yds | PPR |
|---|---|---|
THE EDGE — DEEP MATCHUP DATA
UNLOCK THE EDGE
Full passing / rushing / receiving splits for both rosters, the defensive matchup mismatches to target, and — once the season kicks off — injury reports and the model's exploit edges for this exact game.
Go Pro. Get the Edge.RECENT MEETINGS
| Season · Wk | Matchup | Final |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 · W10 | Jaguars @ Texans | 29–36 |
| 2025 · W3 | Texans @ Jaguars | 10–17 |
| 2024 · W13 | Texans @ Jaguars | 23–20 |
| 2024 · W4 | Jaguars @ Texans | 20–24 |
| 2023 · W12 | Jaguars @ Texans | 24–21 |
| 2023 · W3 | Texans @ Jaguars | 37–17 |
2026 offseason priors from the season Monte-Carlo model — they know the schedule but not free agency, the draft, or injuries. In-season projections take over in September. Full method on the methodology page. Past results. Not financial advice.