Chiefs
2026 MATCHUP PROJECTION
Patriots at Chiefs
Offseason model projection plus deep team and player data. Priors only — before free agency, the draft, and injuries.
57%
Patriots WIN
23–21
PROJ SCORE
Patriots -2.3
PROJ MARGIN
Patriots WIN%Chiefs WIN%
57%43%
PROJECTED MARGIN
Likely final margins (SD 13.5 pts). Each team's shaded area is its win probability; the marker is our projected margin.
TEAM EFFICIENCY · 2025
0.205Net EPA / play0.055
0.158Offense EPA / play0.035
-0.047Defense EPA / play-0.020
0.484Offense success %0.445
0.446Defense success %0.436
BY THE NUMBERS
| #2 | Power rank | #14 |
| 0.103 | Model rating | 0.028 |
| 10.7 | Proj. 2026 wins | 9.0 |
| 80% | Playoff odds | 51% |
| 0.286 | Pass EPA/play | 0.040 |
| 0.008 | Rush EPA/play | 0.027 |
| 490/320 | 2025 record pts | 362/328 |
| 0.002 | Strength of sched | 0.002 |
KEY PLAYERS · 2025
New England Patriots
| Player | Yds | PPR |
|---|---|---|
| D.Maye | 4394 | 352 |
| S.Diggs | 1013 | 210 |
| T.Henderson | 1132 | 206 |
| H.Henry | 768 | 179 |
| R.Stevenson | 948 | 179 |
| K.Boutte | 551 | 124 |
Kansas City Chiefs
| Player | Yds | PPR |
|---|---|---|
THE EDGE — DEEP MATCHUP DATA
UNLOCK THE EDGE
Full passing / rushing / receiving splits for both rosters, the defensive matchup mismatches to target, and — once the season kicks off — injury reports and the model's exploit edges for this exact game.
Go Pro. Get the Edge.RECENT MEETINGS
| Season · Wk | Matchup | Final |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 · W15 | Chiefs @ Patriots | 27–17 |
| 2020 · W4 | Patriots @ Chiefs | 10–26 |
2026 offseason priors from the season Monte-Carlo model — they know the schedule but not free agency, the draft, or injuries. In-season projections take over in September. Full method on the methodology page. Past results. Not financial advice.