Jets
2026 MATCHUP PROJECTION
Patriots at Jets
Offseason model projection plus deep team and player data. Priors only — before free agency, the draft, and injuries.
78%
Patriots WIN
27–17
PROJ SCORE
Patriots -10.4
PROJ MARGIN
Patriots WIN%Jets WIN%
78%22%
PROJECTED MARGIN
Likely final margins (SD 13.5 pts). Each team's shaded area is its win probability; the marker is our projected margin.
TEAM EFFICIENCY · 2025
0.205Net EPA / play-0.274
0.158Offense EPA / play-0.127
-0.047Defense EPA / play0.147
0.484Offense success %0.407
0.446Defense success %0.456
BY THE NUMBERS
| #2 | Power rank | #32 |
| 0.103 | Model rating | -0.137 |
| 10.7 | Proj. 2026 wins | 5.3 |
| 80% | Playoff odds | 4% |
| 0.286 | Pass EPA/play | -0.180 |
| 0.008 | Rush EPA/play | -0.061 |
| 490/320 | 2025 record pts | 300/503 |
| 0.002 | Strength of sched | 0.008 |
KEY PLAYERS · 2025
New England Patriots
| Player | Yds | PPR |
|---|---|---|
| D.Maye | 4394 | 352 |
| S.Diggs | 1013 | 210 |
| T.Henderson | 1132 | 206 |
| H.Henry | 768 | 179 |
| R.Stevenson | 948 | 179 |
| K.Boutte | 551 | 124 |
New York Jets
| Player | Yds | PPR |
|---|---|---|
| B.Hall |
THE EDGE — DEEP MATCHUP DATA
UNLOCK THE EDGE
Full passing / rushing / receiving splits for both rosters, the defensive matchup mismatches to target, and — once the season kicks off — injury reports and the model's exploit edges for this exact game.
Go Pro. Get the Edge.RECENT MEETINGS
| Season · Wk | Matchup | Final |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 · W17 | Patriots @ Jets | 42–10 |
| 2025 · W11 | Jets @ Patriots | 14–27 |
| 2024 · W8 | Jets @ Patriots | 22–25 |
| 2024 · W3 | Patriots @ Jets | 3–24 |
| 2023 · W18 | Jets @ Patriots | 17–3 |
| 2023 · W3 | Patriots @ Jets | 15–10 |
2026 offseason priors from the season Monte-Carlo model — they know the schedule but not free agency, the draft, or injuries. In-season projections take over in September. Full method on the methodology page. Past results. Not financial advice.