Commanders
2026 MATCHUP PROJECTION
Giants at Commanders
Offseason model projection plus deep team and player data. Priors only — before free agency, the draft, and injuries.
50%
Giants WIN
22–22
PROJ SCORE
Giants -0.0
PROJ MARGIN
Giants WIN%Commanders WIN%
50%50%
PROJECTED MARGIN
Likely final margins (SD 13.5 pts). Each team's shaded area is its win probability; the marker is our projected margin.
TEAM EFFICIENCY · 2025
-0.075Net EPA / play-0.137
0.012Offense EPA / play0.005
0.087Defense EPA / play0.142
0.421Offense success %0.456
0.470Defense success %0.476
BY THE NUMBERS
| #23 | Power rank | #28 |
| -0.038 | Model rating | -0.069 |
| 7.6 | Proj. 2026 wins | 6.9 |
| 27% | Playoff odds | 17% |
| -0.008 | Pass EPA/play | -0.008 |
| 0.036 | Rush EPA/play | 0.019 |
| 381/439 | 2025 record pts | 356/451 |
| 0.003 | Strength of sched | 0.002 |
KEY PLAYERS · 2025
New York Giants
| Player | Yds | PPR |
|---|---|---|
| J.Dart | 2272 | 242 |
| W.Robinson | 1019 | 218 |
| T.Tracy | 1028 | 161 |
| T.Johnson | 528 | 128 |
| C.Skattebo | 617 | 128 |
| D.Singletary | 588 | 109 |
Washington Commanders
| Player | Yds | PPR |
|---|---|---|
THE EDGE — DEEP MATCHUP DATA
UNLOCK THE EDGE
Full passing / rushing / receiving splits for both rosters, the defensive matchup mismatches to target, and — once the season kicks off — injury reports and the model's exploit edges for this exact game.
Go Pro. Get the Edge.RECENT MEETINGS
| Season · Wk | Matchup | Final |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 · W15 | Commanders @ Giants | 29–21 |
| 2025 · W1 | Giants @ Commanders | 6–21 |
| 2024 · W9 | Commanders @ Giants | 27–22 |
| 2024 · W2 | Giants @ Commanders | 18–21 |
| 2023 · W11 | Giants @ Commanders | 31–19 |
| 2023 · W7 | Commanders @ Giants | 7–14 |
2026 offseason priors from the season Monte-Carlo model — they know the schedule but not free agency, the draft, or injuries. In-season projections take over in September. Full method on the methodology page. Past results. Not financial advice.