Lions
2026 MATCHUP PROJECTION
Jets at Lions
Offseason model projection plus deep team and player data. Priors only — before free agency, the draft, and injuries.
78%
Lions WIN
17–27
PROJ SCORE
Lions -10.5
PROJ MARGIN
Jets WIN%Lions WIN%
22%78%
PROJECTED MARGIN
Likely final margins (SD 13.5 pts). Each team's shaded area is its win probability; the marker is our projected margin.
TEAM EFFICIENCY · 2025
-0.274Net EPA / play0.091
-0.127Offense EPA / play0.081
0.147Defense EPA / play-0.010
0.407Offense success %0.452
0.456Defense success %0.417
BY THE NUMBERS
| #32 | Power rank | #9 |
| -0.137 | Model rating | 0.046 |
| 5.3 | Proj. 2026 wins | 9.8 |
| 4% | Playoff odds | 64% |
| -0.180 | Pass EPA/play | 0.168 |
| -0.061 | Rush EPA/play | -0.043 |
| 300/503 | 2025 record pts | 481/413 |
| 0.008 | Strength of sched | -0.011 |
KEY PLAYERS · 2025
New York Jets
| Player | Yds | PPR |
|---|---|---|
| B.Hall | 4 | 208 |
| J.Fields | 1259 | 143 |
| G.Wilson | 395 | 99 |
| M.Taylor | 369 | 89 |
| I.Davis | 422 | 71 |
| J.Metchie | 251 | 66 |
Detroit Lions
| Player | Yds | PPR |
|---|---|---|
| J.Gibbs |
THE EDGE — DEEP MATCHUP DATA
UNLOCK THE EDGE
Full passing / rushing / receiving splits for both rosters, the defensive matchup mismatches to target, and — once the season kicks off — injury reports and the model's exploit edges for this exact game.
Go Pro. Get the Edge.RECENT MEETINGS
| Season · Wk | Matchup | Final |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 · W15 | Lions @ Jets | 20–17 |
2026 offseason priors from the season Monte-Carlo model — they know the schedule but not free agency, the draft, or injuries. In-season projections take over in September. Full method on the methodology page. Past results. Not financial advice.