Dolphins
2026 MATCHUP PROJECTION
Jets at Dolphins
Offseason model projection plus deep team and player data. Priors only — before free agency, the draft, and injuries.
67%
Dolphins WIN
19–25
PROJ SCORE
Dolphins -5.8
PROJ MARGIN
Jets WIN%Dolphins WIN%
33%67%
PROJECTED MARGIN
Likely final margins (SD 13.5 pts). Each team's shaded area is its win probability; the marker is our projected margin.
TEAM EFFICIENCY · 2025
-0.274Net EPA / play-0.105
-0.127Offense EPA / play-0.017
0.147Defense EPA / play0.088
0.407Offense success %0.419
0.456Defense success %0.485
BY THE NUMBERS
| #32 | Power rank | #25 |
| -0.137 | Model rating | -0.052 |
| 5.3 | Proj. 2026 wins | 7.0 |
| 4% | Playoff odds | 18% |
| -0.180 | Pass EPA/play | -0.009 |
| -0.061 | Rush EPA/play | -0.026 |
| 300/503 | 2025 record pts | 347/424 |
| 0.008 | Strength of sched | 0.010 |
KEY PLAYERS · 2025
New York Jets
| Player | Yds | PPR |
|---|---|---|
| B.Hall | 4 | 208 |
| J.Fields | 1259 | 143 |
| G.Wilson | 395 | 99 |
| M.Taylor | 369 | 89 |
| I.Davis | 422 | 71 |
| J.Metchie | 251 | 66 |
Miami Dolphins
| Player | Yds | PPR |
|---|---|---|
| D.Achane |
THE EDGE — DEEP MATCHUP DATA
UNLOCK THE EDGE
Full passing / rushing / receiving splits for both rosters, the defensive matchup mismatches to target, and — once the season kicks off — injury reports and the model's exploit edges for this exact game.
Go Pro. Get the Edge.RECENT MEETINGS
| Season · Wk | Matchup | Final |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 · W14 | Dolphins @ Jets | 34–10 |
| 2025 · W4 | Jets @ Dolphins | 21–27 |
| 2024 · W18 | Dolphins @ Jets | 20–32 |
| 2024 · W14 | Jets @ Dolphins | 26–32 |
| 2023 · W15 | Jets @ Dolphins | 0–30 |
| 2023 · W12 | Dolphins @ Jets | 34–13 |
2026 offseason priors from the season Monte-Carlo model — they know the schedule but not free agency, the draft, or injuries. In-season projections take over in September. Full method on the methodology page. Past results. Not financial advice.