Ravens
2026 MATCHUP PROJECTION
Steelers at Ravens
Offseason model projection plus deep team and player data. Priors only — before free agency, the draft, and injuries.
55%
Ravens WIN
21–23
PROJ SCORE
Ravens -1.6
PROJ MARGIN
Steelers WIN%Ravens WIN%
45%55%
PROJECTED MARGIN
Likely final margins (SD 13.5 pts). Each team's shaded area is its win probability; the marker is our projected margin.
TEAM EFFICIENCY · 2025
0.007Net EPA / play0.010
0.025Offense EPA / play0.034
0.018Defense EPA / play0.024
0.440Offense success %0.446
0.433Defense success %0.442
BY THE NUMBERS
| #17 | Power rank | #16 |
| 0.003 | Model rating | 0.005 |
| 8.6 | Proj. 2026 wins | 8.9 |
| 46% | Playoff odds | 49% |
| 0.029 | Pass EPA/play | -0.035 |
| 0.019 | Rush EPA/play | 0.100 |
| 397/387 | 2025 record pts | 424/398 |
| -0.003 | Strength of sched | -0.013 |
KEY PLAYERS · 2025
Pittsburgh Steelers
| Player | Yds | PPR |
|---|---|---|
| A.Rodgers | 3322 | 227 |
| K.Gainwell | 1023 | 221 |
| J.Warren | 1291 | 217 |
| D.Metcalf | 862 | 187 |
| P.Freiermuth | 486 | 114 |
| C.Austin | 372 | 86 |
Baltimore Ravens
| Player | Yds | PPR |
|---|---|---|
THE EDGE — DEEP MATCHUP DATA
UNLOCK THE EDGE
Full passing / rushing / receiving splits for both rosters, the defensive matchup mismatches to target, and — once the season kicks off — injury reports and the model's exploit edges for this exact game.
Go Pro. Get the Edge.RECENT MEETINGS
| Season · Wk | Matchup | Final |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 · W18 | Ravens @ Steelers | 24–26 |
| 2025 · W14 | Steelers @ Ravens | 27–22 |
| 2024 · W16 | Steelers @ Ravens | 17–34 |
| 2024 · W11 | Ravens @ Steelers | 16–18 |
| 2023 · W18 | Steelers @ Ravens | 17–10 |
| 2023 · W5 | Ravens @ Steelers | 10–17 |
2026 offseason priors from the season Monte-Carlo model — they know the schedule but not free agency, the draft, or injuries. In-season projections take over in September. Full method on the methodology page. Past results. Not financial advice.