Giants
2026 MATCHUP PROJECTION
49ers at Giants
Offseason model projection plus deep team and player data. Priors only — before free agency, the draft, and injuries.
52%
49ers WIN
23–22
PROJ SCORE
49ers -0.8
PROJ MARGIN
49ers WIN%Giants WIN%
52%48%
PROJECTED MARGIN
Likely final margins (SD 13.5 pts). Each team's shaded area is its win probability; the marker is our projected margin.
TEAM EFFICIENCY · 2025
0.018Net EPA / play-0.075
0.088Offense EPA / play0.012
0.070Defense EPA / play0.087
0.483Offense success %0.421
0.485Defense success %0.470
BY THE NUMBERS
| #15 | Power rank | #23 |
| 0.009 | Model rating | -0.038 |
| 8.6 | Proj. 2026 wins | 7.6 |
| 41% | Playoff odds | 27% |
| 0.159 | Pass EPA/play | -0.008 |
| -0.004 | Rush EPA/play | 0.036 |
| 437/371 | 2025 record pts | 381/439 |
| 0.006 | Strength of sched | 0.003 |
KEY PLAYERS · 2025
San Francisco 49ers
| Player | Yds | PPR |
|---|---|---|
| C.McCaffrey | 2126 | 417 |
| B.Purdy | 2167 | 177 |
| J.Jennings | 643 | 173 |
| G.Kittle | 625 | 162 |
| M.Jones | 2151 | 130 |
| J.Tonges | 293 | 93 |
New York Giants
| Player | Yds | PPR |
|---|---|---|
| J.Dart |
THE EDGE — DEEP MATCHUP DATA
UNLOCK THE EDGE
Full passing / rushing / receiving splits for both rosters, the defensive matchup mismatches to target, and — once the season kicks off — injury reports and the model's exploit edges for this exact game.
Go Pro. Get the Edge.RECENT MEETINGS
| Season · Wk | Matchup | Final |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 · W9 | 49ers @ Giants | 34–24 |
| 2023 · W3 | Giants @ 49ers | 12–30 |
| 2020 · W3 | 49ers @ Giants | 36–9 |
2026 offseason priors from the season Monte-Carlo model — they know the schedule but not free agency, the draft, or injuries. In-season projections take over in September. Full method on the methodology page. Past results. Not financial advice.