Jaguars
2026 MATCHUP PROJECTION
Commanders at Jaguars
Offseason model projection plus deep team and player data. Priors only — before free agency, the draft, and injuries.
73%
Jaguars WIN
18–26
PROJ SCORE
Jaguars -8.3
PROJ MARGIN
Commanders WIN%Jaguars WIN%
27%73%
PROJECTED MARGIN
Likely final margins (SD 13.5 pts). Each team's shaded area is its win probability; the marker is our projected margin.
TEAM EFFICIENCY · 2025
-0.137Net EPA / play0.136
0.005Offense EPA / play0.030
0.142Defense EPA / play-0.105
0.456Offense success %0.444
0.476Defense success %0.413
BY THE NUMBERS
| #28 | Power rank | #6 |
| -0.069 | Model rating | 0.068 |
| 6.9 | Proj. 2026 wins | 10.1 |
| 17% | Playoff odds | 70% |
| -0.008 | Pass EPA/play | 0.059 |
| 0.019 | Rush EPA/play | -0.006 |
| 356/451 | 2025 record pts | 474/336 |
| 0.002 | Strength of sched | -0.004 |
KEY PLAYERS · 2025
Washington Commanders
| Player | Yds | PPR |
|---|---|---|
| D.Samuel | 802 | 188 |
| J.Croskey-Merritt | 873 | 140 |
| Z.Ertz | 504 | 126 |
| M.Mariota | 1695 | 126 |
| J.Daniels | 1262 | 114 |
| T.McLaurin | 582 | 114 |
Jacksonville Jaguars
| Player | Yds | PPR |
|---|---|---|
THE EDGE — DEEP MATCHUP DATA
UNLOCK THE EDGE
Full passing / rushing / receiving splits for both rosters, the defensive matchup mismatches to target, and — once the season kicks off — injury reports and the model's exploit edges for this exact game.
Go Pro. Get the Edge.RECENT MEETINGS
| Season · Wk | Matchup | Final |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 · W1 | Jaguars @ Commanders | 22–28 |
2026 offseason priors from the season Monte-Carlo model — they know the schedule but not free agency, the draft, or injuries. In-season projections take over in September. Full method on the methodology page. Past results. Not financial advice.