Panthers
2026 MATCHUP PROJECTION
Falcons at Panthers
Offseason model projection plus deep team and player data. Priors only — before free agency, the draft, and injuries.
52%
Falcons WIN
23–22
PROJ SCORE
Falcons -0.7
PROJ MARGIN
Falcons WIN%Panthers WIN%
52%48%
PROJECTED MARGIN
Likely final margins (SD 13.5 pts). Each team's shaded area is its win probability; the marker is our projected margin.
TEAM EFFICIENCY · 2025
-0.018Net EPA / play-0.107
-0.021Offense EPA / play-0.039
-0.004Defense EPA / play0.067
0.437Offense success %0.431
0.446Defense success %0.443
BY THE NUMBERS
| #19 | Power rank | #26 |
| -0.009 | Model rating | -0.053 |
| 8.6 | Proj. 2026 wins | 7.1 |
| 43% | Playoff odds | 21% |
| -0.013 | Pass EPA/play | -0.050 |
| -0.031 | Rush EPA/play | -0.026 |
| 353/401 | 2025 record pts | 311/380 |
| -0.011 | Strength of sched | 0.008 |
KEY PLAYERS · 2025
Atlanta Falcons
| Player | Yds | PPR |
|---|---|---|
| B.Robinson | 2298 | 371 |
| K.Pitts | 928 | 211 |
| D.London | 919 | 202 |
| T.Allgeier | 610 | 123 |
| M.Penix | 1982 | 120 |
| K.Cousins | 1721 | 104 |
Carolina Panthers
| Player | Yds | PPR |
|---|---|---|
| B.Young |
THE EDGE — DEEP MATCHUP DATA
UNLOCK THE EDGE
Full passing / rushing / receiving splits for both rosters, the defensive matchup mismatches to target, and — once the season kicks off — injury reports and the model's exploit edges for this exact game.
Go Pro. Get the Edge.RECENT MEETINGS
| Season · Wk | Matchup | Final |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 · W11 | Panthers @ Falcons | 30–27 |
| 2025 · W3 | Falcons @ Panthers | 0–30 |
| 2024 · W18 | Panthers @ Falcons | 44–38 |
| 2024 · W6 | Falcons @ Panthers | 38–20 |
| 2023 · W15 | Falcons @ Panthers | 7–9 |
| 2023 · W1 | Panthers @ Falcons | 10–24 |
2026 offseason priors from the season Monte-Carlo model — they know the schedule but not free agency, the draft, or injuries. In-season projections take over in September. Full method on the methodology page. Past results. Not financial advice.