Falcons
2026 MATCHUP PROJECTION
Bears at Falcons
Offseason model projection plus deep team and player data. Priors only — before free agency, the draft, and injuries.
51%
Bears WIN
22–22
PROJ SCORE
Bears -0.5
PROJ MARGIN
Bears WIN%Falcons WIN%
51%49%
PROJECTED MARGIN
Likely final margins (SD 13.5 pts). Each team's shaded area is its win probability; the marker is our projected margin.
TEAM EFFICIENCY · 2025
0.061Net EPA / play-0.018
0.080Offense EPA / play-0.021
0.018Defense EPA / play-0.004
0.458Offense success %0.437
0.467Defense success %0.446
BY THE NUMBERS
| #12 | Power rank | #19 |
| 0.031 | Model rating | -0.009 |
| 8.9 | Proj. 2026 wins | 8.6 |
| 48% | Playoff odds | 43% |
| 0.080 | Pass EPA/play | -0.013 |
| 0.079 | Rush EPA/play | -0.031 |
| 441/415 | 2025 record pts | 353/401 |
| 0.015 | Strength of sched | -0.011 |
KEY PLAYERS · 2025
Chicago Bears
| Player | Yds | PPR |
|---|---|---|
| C.Williams | 3942 | 318 |
| D.Swift | 1386 | 229 |
| D.Moore | 2 | 172 |
| C.Loveland | 711 | 165 |
| K.Monangai | 947 | 147 |
| R.Odunze | 661 | 146 |
Atlanta Falcons
| Player | Yds | PPR |
|---|---|---|
| B.Robinson |
THE EDGE — DEEP MATCHUP DATA
UNLOCK THE EDGE
Full passing / rushing / receiving splits for both rosters, the defensive matchup mismatches to target, and — once the season kicks off — injury reports and the model's exploit edges for this exact game.
Go Pro. Get the Edge.RECENT MEETINGS
| Season · Wk | Matchup | Final |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 · W17 | Falcons @ Bears | 17–37 |
| 2022 · W11 | Bears @ Falcons | 24–27 |
| 2020 · W3 | Bears @ Falcons | 30–26 |
2026 offseason priors from the season Monte-Carlo model — they know the schedule but not free agency, the draft, or injuries. In-season projections take over in September. Full method on the methodology page. Past results. Not financial advice.