Chargers
2026 MATCHUP PROJECTION
Broncos at Chargers
Offseason model projection plus deep team and player data. Priors only — before free agency, the draft, and injuries.
51%
Broncos WIN
22–22
PROJ SCORE
Broncos -0.5
PROJ MARGIN
Broncos WIN%Chargers WIN%
51%49%
PROJECTED MARGIN
Likely final margins (SD 13.5 pts). Each team's shaded area is its win probability; the marker is our projected margin.
TEAM EFFICIENCY · 2025
0.138Net EPA / play0.059
0.050Offense EPA / play-0.024
-0.088Defense EPA / play-0.083
0.442Offense success %0.431
0.367Defense success %0.414
BY THE NUMBERS
| #5 | Power rank | #13 |
| 0.069 | Model rating | 0.030 |
| 10.0 | Proj. 2026 wins | 8.9 |
| 70% | Playoff odds | 49% |
| 0.084 | Pass EPA/play | -0.054 |
| 0.000 | Rush EPA/play | 0.019 |
| 401/311 | 2025 record pts | 368/340 |
| 0.001 | Strength of sched | 0.008 |
KEY PLAYERS · 2025
Denver Broncos
| Player | Yds | PPR |
|---|---|---|
| B.Nix | 3931 | 305 |
| C.Sutton | 1017 | 220 |
| R.Harvey | 896 | 207 |
| T.Franklin | 721 | 177 |
| J.Dobbins | 809 | 116 |
| E.Engram | 468 | 103 |
Los Angeles Chargers
| Player | Yds | PPR |
|---|---|---|
| J.Herbert |
THE EDGE — DEEP MATCHUP DATA
UNLOCK THE EDGE
Full passing / rushing / receiving splits for both rosters, the defensive matchup mismatches to target, and — once the season kicks off — injury reports and the model's exploit edges for this exact game.
Go Pro. Get the Edge.RECENT MEETINGS
| Season · Wk | Matchup | Final |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 · W18 | Chargers @ Broncos | 3–19 |
| 2025 · W3 | Broncos @ Chargers | 20–23 |
| 2024 · W16 | Broncos @ Chargers | 27–34 |
| 2024 · W6 | Chargers @ Broncos | 23–16 |
| 2023 · W17 | Chargers @ Broncos | 9–16 |
| 2023 · W14 | Broncos @ Chargers | 24–7 |
2026 offseason priors from the season Monte-Carlo model — they know the schedule but not free agency, the draft, or injuries. In-season projections take over in September. Full method on the methodology page. Past results. Not financial advice.