Vikings
2026 MATCHUP PROJECTION
Lions at Vikings
Offseason model projection plus deep team and player data. Priors only — before free agency, the draft, and injuries.
54%
Lions WIN
23–22
PROJ SCORE
Lions -1.2
PROJ MARGIN
Lions WIN%Vikings WIN%
54%46%
PROJECTED MARGIN
Likely final margins (SD 13.5 pts). Each team's shaded area is its win probability; the marker is our projected margin.
TEAM EFFICIENCY · 2025
0.091Net EPA / play-0.016
0.081Offense EPA / play-0.116
-0.010Defense EPA / play-0.100
0.452Offense success %0.426
0.417Defense success %0.410
BY THE NUMBERS
| #9 | Power rank | #18 |
| 0.046 | Model rating | -0.008 |
| 9.8 | Proj. 2026 wins | 8.2 |
| 64% | Playoff odds | 34% |
| 0.168 | Pass EPA/play | -0.188 |
| -0.043 | Rush EPA/play | -0.015 |
| 481/413 | 2025 record pts | 344/333 |
| -0.011 | Strength of sched | 0.006 |
KEY PLAYERS · 2025
Detroit Lions
| Player | Yds | PPR |
|---|---|---|
| J.Gibbs | 1839 | 367 |
| A.St. Brown | 1410 | 324 |
| J.Goff | 4564 | 297 |
| J.Williams | 1129 | 220 |
| D.Montgomery | 3 | 167 |
| S.LaPorta | 489 | 107 |
Minnesota Vikings
| Player | Yds | PPR |
|---|---|---|
THE EDGE — DEEP MATCHUP DATA
UNLOCK THE EDGE
Full passing / rushing / receiving splits for both rosters, the defensive matchup mismatches to target, and — once the season kicks off — injury reports and the model's exploit edges for this exact game.
Go Pro. Get the Edge.RECENT MEETINGS
| Season · Wk | Matchup | Final |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 · W17 | Lions @ Vikings | 10–23 |
| 2025 · W9 | Vikings @ Lions | 27–24 |
| 2024 · W18 | Vikings @ Lions | 9–31 |
| 2024 · W7 | Lions @ Vikings | 31–29 |
| 2023 · W18 | Vikings @ Lions | 20–30 |
| 2023 · W16 | Lions @ Vikings | 30–24 |
2026 offseason priors from the season Monte-Carlo model — they know the schedule but not free agency, the draft, or injuries. In-season projections take over in September. Full method on the methodology page. Past results. Not financial advice.