Vikings
2026 MATCHUP PROJECTION
Colts at Vikings
Offseason model projection plus deep team and player data. Priors only — before free agency, the draft, and injuries.
52%
Colts WIN
23–22
PROJ SCORE
Colts -0.6
PROJ MARGIN
Colts WIN%Vikings WIN%
52%48%
PROJECTED MARGIN
Likely final margins (SD 13.5 pts). Each team's shaded area is its win probability; the marker is our projected margin.
TEAM EFFICIENCY · 2025
0.068Net EPA / play-0.016
0.072Offense EPA / play-0.116
0.004Defense EPA / play-0.100
0.463Offense success %0.426
0.455Defense success %0.410
BY THE NUMBERS
| #11 | Power rank | #18 |
| 0.034 | Model rating | -0.008 |
| 9.5 | Proj. 2026 wins | 8.2 |
| 59% | Playoff odds | 34% |
| 0.056 | Pass EPA/play | -0.188 |
| 0.094 | Rush EPA/play | -0.015 |
| 466/412 | 2025 record pts | 344/333 |
| -0.014 | Strength of sched | 0.006 |
KEY PLAYERS · 2025
Indianapolis Colts
| Player | Yds | PPR |
|---|---|---|
| J.Taylor | 1963 | 362 |
| D.Jones | 3101 | 226 |
| M.Pittman | 784 | 202 |
| T.Warren | 825 | 189 |
| A.Pierce | 1003 | 183 |
| J.Downs | 564 | 138 |
Minnesota Vikings
| Player | Yds | PPR |
|---|---|---|
| J.Jefferson |
THE EDGE — DEEP MATCHUP DATA
UNLOCK THE EDGE
Full passing / rushing / receiving splits for both rosters, the defensive matchup mismatches to target, and — once the season kicks off — injury reports and the model's exploit edges for this exact game.
Go Pro. Get the Edge.RECENT MEETINGS
| Season · Wk | Matchup | Final |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 · W9 | Colts @ Vikings | 13–21 |
| 2022 · W15 | Colts @ Vikings | 36–39 |
| 2020 · W2 | Vikings @ Colts | 11–28 |
2026 offseason priors from the season Monte-Carlo model — they know the schedule but not free agency, the draft, or injuries. In-season projections take over in September. Full method on the methodology page. Past results. Not financial advice.