Chargers
2026 MATCHUP PROJECTION
Chiefs at Chargers
Offseason model projection plus deep team and player data. Priors only — before free agency, the draft, and injuries.
55%
Chargers WIN
21–23
PROJ SCORE
Chargers -1.6
PROJ MARGIN
Chiefs WIN%Chargers WIN%
45%55%
PROJECTED MARGIN
Likely final margins (SD 13.5 pts). Each team's shaded area is its win probability; the marker is our projected margin.
TEAM EFFICIENCY · 2025
0.055Net EPA / play0.059
0.035Offense EPA / play-0.024
-0.020Defense EPA / play-0.083
0.445Offense success %0.431
0.436Defense success %0.414
BY THE NUMBERS
| #14 | Power rank | #13 |
| 0.028 | Model rating | 0.030 |
| 9.0 | Proj. 2026 wins | 8.9 |
| 51% | Playoff odds | 49% |
| 0.040 | Pass EPA/play | -0.054 |
| 0.027 | Rush EPA/play | 0.019 |
| 362/328 | 2025 record pts | 368/340 |
| 0.002 | Strength of sched | 0.008 |
KEY PLAYERS · 2025
Kansas City Chiefs
| Player | Yds | PPR |
|---|---|---|
| P.Mahomes | 3587 | 286 |
| T.Kelce | 852 | 193 |
| R.Rice | 591 | 150 |
| K.Hunt | 754 | 145 |
| M.Brown | 587 | 138 |
| X.Worthy | 619 | 110 |
Los Angeles Chargers
| Player | Yds | PPR |
|---|---|---|
| J.Herbert |
THE EDGE — DEEP MATCHUP DATA
UNLOCK THE EDGE
Full passing / rushing / receiving splits for both rosters, the defensive matchup mismatches to target, and — once the season kicks off — injury reports and the model's exploit edges for this exact game.
Go Pro. Get the Edge.RECENT MEETINGS
| Season · Wk | Matchup | Final |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 · W15 | Chargers @ Chiefs | 16–13 |
| 2025 · W1 | Chiefs @ Chargers | 21–27 |
| 2024 · W14 | Chargers @ Chiefs | 17–19 |
| 2024 · W4 | Chiefs @ Chargers | 17–10 |
| 2023 · W18 | Chiefs @ Chargers | 13–12 |
| 2023 · W7 | Chargers @ Chiefs | 17–31 |
2026 offseason priors from the season Monte-Carlo model — they know the schedule but not free agency, the draft, or injuries. In-season projections take over in September. Full method on the methodology page. Past results. Not financial advice.