Rams
2026 MATCHUP PROJECTION
Chiefs at Rams
Offseason model projection plus deep team and player data. Priors only — before free agency, the draft, and injuries.
65%
Rams WIN
20–25
PROJ SCORE
Rams -5.3
PROJ MARGIN
Chiefs WIN%Rams WIN%
35%65%
PROJECTED MARGIN
Likely final margins (SD 13.5 pts). Each team's shaded area is its win probability; the marker is our projected margin.
TEAM EFFICIENCY · 2025
0.055Net EPA / play0.206
0.035Offense EPA / play0.145
-0.020Defense EPA / play-0.061
0.445Offense success %0.518
0.436Defense success %0.420
BY THE NUMBERS
| #14 | Power rank | #1 |
| 0.028 | Model rating | 0.103 |
| 9.0 | Proj. 2026 wins | 10.8 |
| 51% | Playoff odds | 80% |
| 0.040 | Pass EPA/play | 0.229 |
| 0.027 | Rush EPA/play | 0.026 |
| 362/328 | 2025 record pts | 518/346 |
| 0.002 | Strength of sched | 0.005 |
KEY PLAYERS · 2025
Kansas City Chiefs
| Player | Yds | PPR |
|---|---|---|
| P.Mahomes | 3587 | 286 |
| T.Kelce | 852 | 193 |
| R.Rice | 591 | 150 |
| K.Hunt | 754 | 145 |
| M.Brown | 587 | 138 |
| X.Worthy | 619 | 110 |
Los Angeles Rams
| Player | Yds | PPR |
|---|---|---|
| P.Nacua |
THE EDGE — DEEP MATCHUP DATA
UNLOCK THE EDGE
Full passing / rushing / receiving splits for both rosters, the defensive matchup mismatches to target, and — once the season kicks off — injury reports and the model's exploit edges for this exact game.
Go Pro. Get the Edge.2026 offseason priors from the season Monte-Carlo model — they know the schedule but not free agency, the draft, or injuries. In-season projections take over in September. Full method on the methodology page. Past results. Not financial advice.