Buccaneers
2026 MATCHUP PROJECTION
Chargers at Buccaneers
Offseason model projection plus deep team and player data. Priors only — before free agency, the draft, and injuries.
52%
Chargers WIN
23–22
PROJ SCORE
Chargers -0.5
PROJ MARGIN
Chargers WIN%Buccaneers WIN%
52%48%
PROJECTED MARGIN
Likely final margins (SD 13.5 pts). Each team's shaded area is its win probability; the marker is our projected margin.
TEAM EFFICIENCY · 2025
0.059Net EPA / play-0.022
-0.024Offense EPA / play-0.009
-0.083Defense EPA / play0.013
0.431Offense success %0.423
0.414Defense success %0.449
BY THE NUMBERS
| #13 | Power rank | #20 |
| 0.030 | Model rating | -0.011 |
| 8.9 | Proj. 2026 wins | 8.4 |
| 49% | Playoff odds | 40% |
| -0.054 | Pass EPA/play | -0.026 |
| 0.019 | Rush EPA/play | 0.014 |
| 368/340 | 2025 record pts | 380/411 |
| 0.008 | Strength of sched | -0.003 |
KEY PLAYERS · 2025
Los Angeles Chargers
| Player | Yds | PPR |
|---|---|---|
| J.Herbert | 3727 | 287 |
| K.Allen | 777 | 183 |
| L.McConkey | 789 | 181 |
| Q.Johnston | 742 | 171 |
| O.Hampton | 737 | 136 |
| O.Gadsden | 664 | 131 |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
| Player | Yds | PPR |
|---|---|---|
THE EDGE — DEEP MATCHUP DATA
UNLOCK THE EDGE
Full passing / rushing / receiving splits for both rosters, the defensive matchup mismatches to target, and — once the season kicks off — injury reports and the model's exploit edges for this exact game.
Go Pro. Get the Edge.RECENT MEETINGS
| Season · Wk | Matchup | Final |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 · W15 | Buccaneers @ Chargers | 40–17 |
| 2020 · W4 | Chargers @ Buccaneers | 31–38 |
2026 offseason priors from the season Monte-Carlo model — they know the schedule but not free agency, the draft, or injuries. In-season projections take over in September. Full method on the methodology page. Past results. Not financial advice.