Lions
2026 MATCHUP PROJECTION
Saints at Lions
Offseason model projection plus deep team and player data. Priors only — before free agency, the draft, and injuries.
63%
Lions WIN
20–25
PROJ SCORE
Lions -4.5
PROJ MARGIN
Saints WIN%Lions WIN%
37%63%
PROJECTED MARGIN
Likely final margins (SD 13.5 pts). Each team's shaded area is its win probability; the marker is our projected margin.
TEAM EFFICIENCY · 2025
-0.029Net EPA / play0.091
-0.088Offense EPA / play0.081
-0.059Defense EPA / play-0.010
0.420Offense success %0.452
0.418Defense success %0.417
BY THE NUMBERS
| #21 | Power rank | #9 |
| -0.015 | Model rating | 0.046 |
| 8.8 | Proj. 2026 wins | 9.8 |
| 45% | Playoff odds | 64% |
| -0.080 | Pass EPA/play | 0.168 |
| -0.101 | Rush EPA/play | -0.043 |
| 306/383 | 2025 record pts | 481/413 |
| -0.021 | Strength of sched | -0.011 |
KEY PLAYERS · 2025
New Orleans Saints
| Player | Yds | PPR |
|---|---|---|
| C.Olave | 1160 | 268 |
| J.Johnson | 889 | 180 |
| T.Shough | 2384 | 158 |
| R.Shaheed | 504 | 104 |
| A.Kamara | 657 | 101 |
| S.Rattler | 1586 | 99 |
Detroit Lions
| Player | Yds | PPR |
|---|---|---|
| J.Gibbs |
THE EDGE — DEEP MATCHUP DATA
UNLOCK THE EDGE
Full passing / rushing / receiving splits for both rosters, the defensive matchup mismatches to target, and — once the season kicks off — injury reports and the model's exploit edges for this exact game.
Go Pro. Get the Edge.RECENT MEETINGS
| Season · Wk | Matchup | Final |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 · W13 | Lions @ Saints | 33–28 |
| 2020 · W4 | Saints @ Lions | 35–29 |
2026 offseason priors from the season Monte-Carlo model — they know the schedule but not free agency, the draft, or injuries. In-season projections take over in September. Full method on the methodology page. Past results. Not financial advice.