Chargers
2026 MATCHUP PROJECTION
49ers at Chargers
Offseason model projection plus deep team and player data. Priors only — before free agency, the draft, and injuries.
58%
Chargers WIN
21–24
PROJ SCORE
Chargers -2.6
PROJ MARGIN
49ers WIN%Chargers WIN%
42%58%
PROJECTED MARGIN
Likely final margins (SD 13.5 pts). Each team's shaded area is its win probability; the marker is our projected margin.
TEAM EFFICIENCY · 2025
0.018Net EPA / play0.059
0.088Offense EPA / play-0.024
0.070Defense EPA / play-0.083
0.483Offense success %0.431
0.485Defense success %0.414
BY THE NUMBERS
| #15 | Power rank | #13 |
| 0.009 | Model rating | 0.030 |
| 8.6 | Proj. 2026 wins | 8.9 |
| 41% | Playoff odds | 49% |
| 0.159 | Pass EPA/play | -0.054 |
| -0.004 | Rush EPA/play | 0.019 |
| 437/371 | 2025 record pts | 368/340 |
| 0.006 | Strength of sched | 0.008 |
KEY PLAYERS · 2025
San Francisco 49ers
| Player | Yds | PPR |
|---|---|---|
| C.McCaffrey | 2126 | 417 |
| B.Purdy | 2167 | 177 |
| J.Jennings | 643 | 173 |
| G.Kittle | 625 | 162 |
| M.Jones | 2151 | 130 |
| J.Tonges | 293 | 93 |
Los Angeles Chargers
| Player | Yds | PPR |
|---|---|---|
THE EDGE — DEEP MATCHUP DATA
UNLOCK THE EDGE
Full passing / rushing / receiving splits for both rosters, the defensive matchup mismatches to target, and — once the season kicks off — injury reports and the model's exploit edges for this exact game.
Go Pro. Get the Edge.RECENT MEETINGS
| Season · Wk | Matchup | Final |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 · W10 | Chargers @ 49ers | 16–22 |
2026 offseason priors from the season Monte-Carlo model — they know the schedule but not free agency, the draft, or injuries. In-season projections take over in September. Full method on the methodology page. Past results. Not financial advice.