Saints
2026 MATCHUP PROJECTION
Buccaneers at Saints
Offseason model projection plus deep team and player data. Priors only — before free agency, the draft, and injuries.
54%
Saints WIN
22–23
PROJ SCORE
Saints -1.3
PROJ MARGIN
Buccaneers WIN%Saints WIN%
46%54%
PROJECTED MARGIN
Likely final margins (SD 13.5 pts). Each team's shaded area is its win probability; the marker is our projected margin.
TEAM EFFICIENCY · 2025
-0.022Net EPA / play-0.029
-0.009Offense EPA / play-0.088
0.013Defense EPA / play-0.059
0.423Offense success %0.420
0.449Defense success %0.418
BY THE NUMBERS
| #20 | Power rank | #21 |
| -0.011 | Model rating | -0.015 |
| 8.4 | Proj. 2026 wins | 8.8 |
| 40% | Playoff odds | 45% |
| -0.026 | Pass EPA/play | -0.080 |
| 0.014 | Rush EPA/play | -0.101 |
| 380/411 | 2025 record pts | 306/383 |
| -0.003 | Strength of sched | -0.021 |
KEY PLAYERS · 2025
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
| Player | Yds | PPR |
|---|---|---|
| B.Mayfield | 3693 | 272 |
| E.Egbuka | 947 | 196 |
| R.White | 790 | 143 |
| B.Irving | 865 | 139 |
| C.Otton | 572 | 122 |
| T.Johnson | 344 | 92 |
New Orleans Saints
| Player | Yds | PPR |
|---|---|---|
THE EDGE — DEEP MATCHUP DATA
UNLOCK THE EDGE
Full passing / rushing / receiving splits for both rosters, the defensive matchup mismatches to target, and — once the season kicks off — injury reports and the model's exploit edges for this exact game.
Go Pro. Get the Edge.RECENT MEETINGS
| Season · Wk | Matchup | Final |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 · W14 | Saints @ Buccaneers | 24–20 |
| 2025 · W8 | Buccaneers @ Saints | 23–3 |
| 2024 · W18 | Saints @ Buccaneers | 19–27 |
| 2024 · W6 | Buccaneers @ Saints | 51–27 |
| 2023 · W17 | Saints @ Buccaneers | 23–13 |
| 2023 · W4 | Buccaneers @ Saints | 26–9 |
2026 offseason priors from the season Monte-Carlo model — they know the schedule but not free agency, the draft, or injuries. In-season projections take over in September. Full method on the methodology page. Past results. Not financial advice.