Vikings
2026 MATCHUP PROJECTION
Falcons at Vikings
Offseason model projection plus deep team and player data. Priors only — before free agency, the draft, and injuries.
55%
Vikings WIN
21–23
PROJ SCORE
Vikings -1.6
PROJ MARGIN
Falcons WIN%Vikings WIN%
45%55%
PROJECTED MARGIN
Likely final margins (SD 13.5 pts). Each team's shaded area is its win probability; the marker is our projected margin.
TEAM EFFICIENCY · 2025
-0.018Net EPA / play-0.016
-0.021Offense EPA / play-0.116
-0.004Defense EPA / play-0.100
0.437Offense success %0.426
0.446Defense success %0.410
BY THE NUMBERS
| #19 | Power rank | #18 |
| -0.009 | Model rating | -0.008 |
| 8.6 | Proj. 2026 wins | 8.2 |
| 43% | Playoff odds | 34% |
| -0.013 | Pass EPA/play | -0.188 |
| -0.031 | Rush EPA/play | -0.015 |
| 353/401 | 2025 record pts | 344/333 |
| -0.011 | Strength of sched | 0.006 |
KEY PLAYERS · 2025
Atlanta Falcons
| Player | Yds | PPR |
|---|---|---|
| B.Robinson | 2298 | 371 |
| K.Pitts | 928 | 211 |
| D.London | 919 | 202 |
| T.Allgeier | 610 | 123 |
| M.Penix | 1982 | 120 |
| K.Cousins | 1721 | 104 |
Minnesota Vikings
| Player | Yds | PPR |
|---|---|---|
| J.Jefferson |
THE EDGE — DEEP MATCHUP DATA
UNLOCK THE EDGE
Full passing / rushing / receiving splits for both rosters, the defensive matchup mismatches to target, and — once the season kicks off — injury reports and the model's exploit edges for this exact game.
Go Pro. Get the Edge.RECENT MEETINGS
| Season · Wk | Matchup | Final |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 · W2 | Falcons @ Vikings | 22–6 |
| 2024 · W14 | Falcons @ Vikings | 21–42 |
| 2023 · W9 | Vikings @ Falcons | 31–28 |
| 2020 · W6 | Falcons @ Vikings | 40–23 |
2026 offseason priors from the season Monte-Carlo model — they know the schedule but not free agency, the draft, or injuries. In-season projections take over in September. Full method on the methodology page. Past results. Not financial advice.