Chargers
2026 MATCHUP PROJECTION
Raiders at Chargers
Offseason model projection plus deep team and player data. Priors only — before free agency, the draft, and injuries.
75%
Chargers WIN
18–27
PROJ SCORE
Chargers -8.9
PROJ MARGIN
Raiders WIN%Chargers WIN%
25%75%
PROJECTED MARGIN
Likely final margins (SD 13.5 pts). Each team's shaded area is its win probability; the marker is our projected margin.
TEAM EFFICIENCY · 2025
-0.240Net EPA / play0.059
-0.215Offense EPA / play-0.024
0.024Defense EPA / play-0.083
0.376Offense success %0.431
0.450Defense success %0.414
BY THE NUMBERS
| #30 | Power rank | #13 |
| -0.120 | Model rating | 0.030 |
| 5.5 | Proj. 2026 wins | 8.9 |
| 6% | Playoff odds | 49% |
| -0.187 | Pass EPA/play | -0.054 |
| -0.261 | Rush EPA/play | 0.019 |
| 241/432 | 2025 record pts | 368/340 |
| 0.011 | Strength of sched | 0.008 |
KEY PLAYERS · 2025
Las Vegas Raiders
| Player | Yds | PPR |
|---|---|---|
| A.Jeanty | 1321 | 245 |
| B.Bowers | 682 | 176 |
| G.Smith | 3025 | 174 |
| T.Tucker | 747 | 162 |
| M.Mayer | 328 | 74 |
| J.Meyers | 352 | 68 |
Los Angeles Chargers
| Player | Yds | PPR |
|---|---|---|
| J.Herbert |
THE EDGE — DEEP MATCHUP DATA
UNLOCK THE EDGE
Full passing / rushing / receiving splits for both rosters, the defensive matchup mismatches to target, and — once the season kicks off — injury reports and the model's exploit edges for this exact game.
Go Pro. Get the Edge.RECENT MEETINGS
| Season · Wk | Matchup | Final |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 · W13 | Raiders @ Chargers | 14–31 |
| 2025 · W2 | Chargers @ Raiders | 20–9 |
| 2024 · W18 | Chargers @ Raiders | 34–20 |
| 2024 · W1 | Raiders @ Chargers | 10–22 |
| 2023 · W15 | Chargers @ Raiders | 21–63 |
| 2023 · W4 | Raiders @ Chargers | 17–24 |
2026 offseason priors from the season Monte-Carlo model — they know the schedule but not free agency, the draft, or injuries. In-season projections take over in September. Full method on the methodology page. Past results. Not financial advice.