Saints
2026 MATCHUP PROJECTION
Vikings at Saints
Offseason model projection plus deep team and player data. Priors only — before free agency, the draft, and injuries.
54%
Saints WIN
22–23
PROJ SCORE
Saints -1.2
PROJ MARGIN
Vikings WIN%Saints WIN%
46%54%
PROJECTED MARGIN
Likely final margins (SD 13.5 pts). Each team's shaded area is its win probability; the marker is our projected margin.
TEAM EFFICIENCY · 2025
-0.016Net EPA / play-0.029
-0.116Offense EPA / play-0.088
-0.100Defense EPA / play-0.059
0.426Offense success %0.420
0.410Defense success %0.418
BY THE NUMBERS
| #18 | Power rank | #21 |
| -0.008 | Model rating | -0.015 |
| 8.2 | Proj. 2026 wins | 8.8 |
| 34% | Playoff odds | 45% |
| -0.188 | Pass EPA/play | -0.080 |
| -0.015 | Rush EPA/play | -0.101 |
| 344/333 | 2025 record pts | 306/383 |
| 0.006 | Strength of sched | -0.021 |
KEY PLAYERS · 2025
Minnesota Vikings
| Player | Yds | PPR |
|---|---|---|
| J.Jefferson | 1055 | 202 |
| J.Addison | 691 | 135 |
| J.Mason | 809 | 129 |
| J.McCarthy | 1632 | 125 |
| A.Jones | 747 | 119 |
| T.Hockenson | 438 | 113 |
New Orleans Saints
| Player | Yds | PPR |
|---|---|---|
THE EDGE — DEEP MATCHUP DATA
UNLOCK THE EDGE
Full passing / rushing / receiving splits for both rosters, the defensive matchup mismatches to target, and — once the season kicks off — injury reports and the model's exploit edges for this exact game.
Go Pro. Get the Edge.RECENT MEETINGS
| Season · Wk | Matchup | Final |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 · W10 | Saints @ Vikings | 19–27 |
| 2022 · W4 | Vikings @ Saints | 28–25 |
| 2020 · W16 | Vikings @ Saints | 33–52 |
2026 offseason priors from the season Monte-Carlo model — they know the schedule but not free agency, the draft, or injuries. In-season projections take over in September. Full method on the methodology page. Past results. Not financial advice.