Falcons
2026 MATCHUP PROJECTION
Saints at Falcons
Offseason model projection plus deep team and player data. Priors only — before free agency, the draft, and injuries.
55%
Falcons WIN
21–23
PROJ SCORE
Falcons -1.8
PROJ MARGIN
Saints WIN%Falcons WIN%
45%55%
PROJECTED MARGIN
Likely final margins (SD 13.5 pts). Each team's shaded area is its win probability; the marker is our projected margin.
TEAM EFFICIENCY · 2025
-0.029Net EPA / play-0.018
-0.088Offense EPA / play-0.021
-0.059Defense EPA / play-0.004
0.420Offense success %0.437
0.418Defense success %0.446
BY THE NUMBERS
| #21 | Power rank | #19 |
| -0.015 | Model rating | -0.009 |
| 8.8 | Proj. 2026 wins | 8.6 |
| 45% | Playoff odds | 43% |
| -0.080 | Pass EPA/play | -0.013 |
| -0.101 | Rush EPA/play | -0.031 |
| 306/383 | 2025 record pts | 353/401 |
| -0.021 | Strength of sched | -0.011 |
KEY PLAYERS · 2025
New Orleans Saints
| Player | Yds | PPR |
|---|---|---|
| C.Olave | 1160 | 268 |
| J.Johnson | 889 | 180 |
| T.Shough | 2384 | 158 |
| R.Shaheed | 504 | 104 |
| A.Kamara | 657 | 101 |
| S.Rattler | 1586 | 99 |
Atlanta Falcons
| Player | Yds | PPR |
|---|---|---|
| B.Robinson |
THE EDGE — DEEP MATCHUP DATA
UNLOCK THE EDGE
Full passing / rushing / receiving splits for both rosters, the defensive matchup mismatches to target, and — once the season kicks off — injury reports and the model's exploit edges for this exact game.
Go Pro. Get the Edge.RECENT MEETINGS
| Season · Wk | Matchup | Final |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 · W18 | Saints @ Falcons | 17–19 |
| 2025 · W12 | Falcons @ Saints | 24–10 |
| 2024 · W10 | Falcons @ Saints | 17–20 |
| 2024 · W4 | Saints @ Falcons | 24–26 |
| 2023 · W18 | Falcons @ Saints | 17–48 |
| 2023 · W12 | Saints @ Falcons | 15–24 |
2026 offseason priors from the season Monte-Carlo model — they know the schedule but not free agency, the draft, or injuries. In-season projections take over in September. Full method on the methodology page. Past results. Not financial advice.