Skip to content
NoPunt
This Week
Predictions
Start hereHow it worksThree models vote on every game. We publish the method, the calibration and every miss.Read the methodology →
The games
Game PredictionsLive Win ProbabilityAll 32 TeamsCompare Two Teams
2026 season
Projections HubPlayer ProjectionsPlayoff PictureSuper Bowl OddsAward Odds
Where teams stand
StandingsPower RankingsPlayoff OddsStrength of ScheduleRemaining Schedule
The model
MethodologyModel HealthCalibration, in publicModel vs MarketOur Wins vs Vegas
Betting
Start hereThe EdgeThe short list of games the model flags as bets, with unit sizing and the price we would take.See this week’s Edge →
The Edge
This Week’s EdgeFlagged bets, ProModel EdgesBankroll & Sizing
Markets
Game TotalsPlayer PropsSame-Game Parlay
Pools
Survivor PicksRanked by win probabilityCirca SurvivorEntries alive + availabilityPick'em PicksEvery game, straight upConfidence Pool PicksPoints + expected pointsHow Pools Work
Getting sharper
Expected ValueClosing Line ValueWhat ATS Means
Fantasy
Start hereFantasy HubSync your league and get lineups, trade grades and waiver targets under your exact scoring.Connect a league →
Your week
Projections & Start/SitFantasy HubSync your leagueDefense vs Position
Players
Stat LeadersPlayer RatingsNoPunt Player RatingNext Gen StatsAdvanced Stats
Context
Coaching TendenciesSeason OutlookMost Dramatic Games
Results
Learn
Start hereNew here?Eleven plain-English guides, from what a spread is to how closing line value works.Start with the basics →
Betting basics
All GuidesHow Spreads WorkOdds ExplainedBankroll ManagementBetting CalculatorsFree, no login
The game
What is EPAStats GlossaryPower Rankings ExplainedHow Standings WorkHow Playoffs Work
NoPunt
About NoPuntBlogFull LedgerLedger ExplorerFilter and sort, Pro
For developers
Public JSON APIData ExportsCSV, Pro
GO PRO
NoPunt

Every NFL pick on the record, win or lose. We publish live picks before kickoff. We track every loss. The receipts are all here.

Get every pick before kickoff.

GO PRO

PICKS

This WeekThe EdgeSurvivor PicksPick’em PicksConfidence Pool PicksCirca SurvivorTrack RecordTeamsCompareStandingsPower RankingsPlayoff Odds2026 Projections2026 Playoff Picture2026 Super Bowl Odds2026 Game Predictions

ANALYTICS

FantasyDefenseCoachingGame TotalsPlayer PropsModel EdgeStat LeadersPlayer RatingsSGP BuilderSchedule StrengthSeason OutlookSeason AwardsSeason ReviewModel Performance

LEARN

NFL SpreadsBetting OddsATS ExplainedEPA in FootballStats GlossaryAbout

MORE

Go ProDashboardPick LedgerMethodologyModel HonestyData ExportsAPI DocsNFL Data API
© 2026 NoPunt. Not a sportsbook. Not financial advice. For entertainment only, no guaranteed outcomes. 21+. Gambling problem? NY: 1-877-8-HOPENY. Elsewhere: 1-800-MY-RESET.
PrivacyTermsAPI
2026 SEASON · HEAD-TO-HEAD

DETVSARI

Detroit Lions
DET#14
Detroit Lions
VS
Arizona Cardinals
ARI#26
Arizona Cardinals
CHANGE TEAMS
VS

DET leads in 6 of 7 statistical categories

STAT COMPARISON

2026 SEASON · EPA PER PLAY
DET
METRIC
ARI
+0.029
NET EPA / PLAY
-0.142
+0.180
OFF EPA / PLAY
-0.018
+0.152

BETTING RECORDS

2026 SEASON · W-L AND ATS
DET
3-2
STRAIGHT UP
60%
2-3
ATS
40%
ARI
1-4
STRAIGHT UP
20%
2-3
ATS
40%

RECENT FORM

2026 SEASON · LAST 5 GAMES
DET
WLWLW
ARI
LLLLW
L4 STREAK

COACHING TENDENCIES

2026 SEASON · PLAY-BY-PLAY DERIVED
DET
TENDENCY
ARI
61.2%
PASS RATE
63.8%
30.6%
4TH DOWN GO RATE
17.9%

PLAYOFF ODDS

2026 SEASON · MONTE CARLO SIMULATION
DET
PLAYOFFS>99%
CONF CHAMP3.4%
SUPER BOWL0.9%
ARI
PLAYOFFS<1%
CONF CHAMP<1%
SUPER BOWL

RECENT MEETINGS

4 GAMES ON FILE
SEASON / WKMATCHUPOUR PICKSCORERESULT
2026 WK5DET @ ARIDETBDET 45 · ARI 21WIN
2024 WK3DET @ ARIDETBDET 20 · ARI 13WIN
2021 WK15ARI @ DETARIA+ARI 12 · DET 30LOSS
2020 WK3DET @ ARIARIBDET 26 · ARI 23LOSS

PICK HISTORY

ALL-TIME · 4 MEETINGS SINCE 2020
2
PICKED DET
2 of 4 games
2
PICKED ARI
2 of 4 games
2
CORRECT PICKS
2 of 4 graded
Weekly Picks →Power Rankings →All Teams →Defense Rankings →Schedule Strength →Standings →
DEF EPA / PLAY
+0.124
49.1%
OFF SUCCESS RATE
45.9%
164.0
POINTS FOR
108.0
148.0
POINTS AGAINST
162.0
+16
POINT DIFF
-54
37.3%
3RD DOWN CONV
41.1%
93.3%
RED ZONE TD RATE
63.6%
5.8%
NO HUDDLE RATE
12.2%
2.69
PTS / DRIVE
1.53
<1%