Skip to content
NoPunt
This Week
Predictions
Start hereHow it worksThree models vote on every game. We publish the method, the calibration and every miss.Read the methodology →
The games
Game PredictionsLive Win ProbabilityAll 32 TeamsCompare Two Teams
2026 season
Projections HubPlayer ProjectionsPlayoff PictureSuper Bowl OddsAward Odds
Where teams stand
StandingsPower RankingsPlayoff OddsStrength of ScheduleRemaining Schedule
The model
MethodologyModel HealthCalibration, in publicModel vs MarketOur Wins vs Vegas
Betting
Start hereThe EdgeThe short list of games the model flags as bets, with unit sizing and the price we would take.See this week’s Edge →
The Edge
This Week’s EdgeFlagged bets, ProModel EdgesBankroll & Sizing
Markets
Game TotalsPlayer PropsSame-Game Parlay
Pools
Survivor PicksRanked by win probabilityCirca SurvivorEntries alive + availabilityPick'em PicksEvery game, straight upConfidence Pool PicksPoints + expected pointsHow Pools Work
Getting sharper
Expected ValueClosing Line ValueWhat ATS Means
Fantasy
Start hereFantasy HubSync your league and get lineups, trade grades and waiver targets under your exact scoring.Connect a league →
Your week
Projections & Start/SitFantasy HubSync your leagueDefense vs Position
Players
Stat LeadersPlayer RatingsNoPunt Player RatingNext Gen StatsAdvanced Stats
Context
Coaching TendenciesSeason OutlookMost Dramatic Games
Results
Learn
Start hereNew here?Eleven plain-English guides, from what a spread is to how closing line value works.Start with the basics →
Betting basics
All GuidesHow Spreads WorkOdds ExplainedBankroll ManagementBetting CalculatorsFree, no login
The game
What is EPAStats GlossaryPower Rankings ExplainedHow Standings WorkHow Playoffs Work
NoPunt
About NoPuntBlogFull LedgerLedger ExplorerFilter and sort, Pro
For developers
Public JSON APIData ExportsCSV, Pro
GO PRO
NoPunt

Every NFL pick on the record, win or lose. We publish live picks before kickoff. We track every loss. The receipts are all here.

Get every pick before kickoff.

GO PRO

PICKS

This WeekThe EdgeSurvivor PicksPick’em PicksConfidence Pool PicksCirca SurvivorTrack RecordTeamsCompareStandingsPower RankingsPlayoff Odds2026 Projections2026 Playoff Picture2026 Super Bowl Odds2026 Game Predictions

ANALYTICS

FantasyDefenseCoachingGame TotalsPlayer PropsModel EdgeStat LeadersPlayer RatingsSGP BuilderSchedule StrengthSeason OutlookSeason AwardsSeason ReviewModel Performance

LEARN

NFL SpreadsBetting OddsATS ExplainedEPA in FootballStats GlossaryAbout

MORE

Go ProDashboardPick LedgerMethodologyModel HonestyData ExportsAPI DocsNFL Data API
© 2026 NoPunt. Not a sportsbook. Not financial advice. For entertainment only, no guaranteed outcomes. 21+. Gambling problem? NY: 1-877-8-HOPENY. Elsewhere: 1-800-MY-RESET.
PrivacyTermsAPI
2026 SEASON · HEAD-TO-HEAD

INDVSHOU

Indianapolis Colts
IND#29
Indianapolis Colts
VS
Houston Texans
HOU#12
Houston Texans
CHANGE TEAMS
VS

HOU leads in 6 of 7 statistical categories

STAT COMPARISON

2026 SEASON · EPA PER PLAY
IND
METRIC
HOU
-0.150
NET EPA / PLAY
+0.048
-0.051
OFF EPA / PLAY
+0.005
+0.099

BETTING RECORDS

2026 SEASON · W-L AND ATS
IND
2-3
STRAIGHT UP
40%
3-2
ATS
60%
HOU
1-4
STRAIGHT UP
20%
1-4
ATS
20%

RECENT FORM

2026 SEASON · LAST 5 GAMES
IND
LWWLL
HOU
WLLLL

COACHING TENDENCIES

2026 SEASON · PLAY-BY-PLAY DERIVED
IND
TENDENCY
HOU
57.8%
PASS RATE
63.0%
27.5%
4TH DOWN GO RATE
17.9%

PLAYOFF ODDS

2026 SEASON · MONTE CARLO SIMULATION
IND
PLAYOFFS<1%
CONF CHAMP<1%
SUPER BOWL<1%
HOU
PLAYOFFS<1%
CONF CHAMP<1%
SUPER BOWL

RECENT MEETINGS

14 GAMES ON FILE
SEASON / WKMATCHUPOUR PICKSCORERESULT
2026 WK11IND @ HOUHOUB—PENDING
2026 WK3HOU @ INDHOUBHOU 17 · IND 19LOSS
2025 WK18IND @ HOUHOUA+IND 30 · HOU 38WIN
2025 WK13HOU @ INDINDCHOU 20 · IND 16LOSS
2024 WK8IND @ HOUHOUC

PICK HISTORY

ALL-TIME · 14 MEETINGS SINCE 2020
7
PICKED IND
7 of 14 games
7
PICKED HOU
7 of 14 games
6
CORRECT PICKS
6 of 12 graded
Weekly Picks →Power Rankings →All Teams →Defense Rankings →Schedule Strength →Standings →
DEF EPA / PLAY
-0.043
42.2%
OFF SUCCESS RATE
42.4%
124.0
POINTS FOR
110.0
138.0
POINTS AGAINST
112.0
-14
POINT DIFF
-2
35.8%
3RD DOWN CONV
38.5%
77.8%
RED ZONE TD RATE
71.4%
3.8%
NO HUDDLE RATE
5.5%
1.40
PTS / DRIVE
1.45
<1%
IND 20 · HOU 23
WIN
2024 WK1HOU @ INDINDCHOU 29 · IND 27LOSS
2023 WK18HOU @ INDINDBHOU 23 · IND 19LOSS
2023 WK2IND @ HOUHOUCIND 31 · HOU 20LOSS
2022 WK18HOU @ INDHOUCHOU 32 · IND 31WIN
2022 WK1IND @ HOUINDBIND 20 · HOU 20PENDING
2021 WK13IND @ HOUINDA+IND 31 · HOU 0WIN
2021 WK6HOU @ INDINDAHOU 3 · IND 31WIN
2020 WK15HOU @ INDINDAHOU 20 · IND 27WIN
2020 WK13IND @ HOUHOUCIND 26 · HOU 20LOSS