PLAYERS
2026 PLAYER PROJECTIONS
2026 PLAYER STAT LINES
Projected 2026 season stat lines and PPR fantasy points for every skill player, a pure model (multi-year usage × efficiency, age curves, and a games-played durability model), no betting or expert-ranking input. Floor–ceiling ranges shown.
58
TE STARTERS SHOWN
230
TOP TE PPR
| PLAYER | GP | REC | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|
 Trey McBride ARI | 16 | 97 | 230 |
 Brock Bowers LV | 14 | 71 | 187 |
ᴿ = rookie (draft-capital prior). PPR = standard PPR fantasy scoring. Ranges are the model’s floor–ceiling band (wider for rookies + thin histories).
NOTE: this board shows projected starters only (QB1, and RB1/RB2, WR1/WR2, TE1/TE2 for the committee positions), by each team’s real depth chart. Every rostered player still gets a projection; the rest just don’t clutter a starters’ board.
HOW THESE ARE BUILT
Each projection is team volume × player share × efficiency: a player’s multi-year per-game usage and per-opportunity efficiency, empirical-Bayes shrunk toward the position baseline, adjusted by a frozen age curve, and scaled by an availability model that projects games played from durability history, the single biggest accuracy lever. Pure model, zero betting or expert-ranking input. On backtests it beats a naive last-year projection at every position and agrees ~68% with expert rankings. See the methodology →
QUESTIONS
On a 2016–2024 walk-forward backtest the model beats both a position-average and a last-year-carry-forward baseline at every skill position on fantasy-PPR error, and correlates ~68% with the current expert rankings, while using zero market or ranking input.
Every stat line carries a floor–ceiling PPR band. Rookies and players with thin histories get visibly wider bands, because there is genuinely more uncertainty.
How steadily a player produced last season, not how much. It is the week-to-week spread of his 2025 PPR points (standard deviation over the average) ranked against every player at his position with at least eight games and a five-point average. 100 is the steadiest at the position, 0 the most boom-or-bust. STEADY is the top third, BOOM/BUST the bottom third. Rookies and thin samples get no score rather than a guess. Two players with the same projection can get there very differently; this is the column that says which.
Rookies have no NFL history, so they're seeded from their draft capital scaled to a position baseline, with the widest bands. Their projections firm up once they play.
Before kickoff
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