Skip to content
NoPunt
This Week
Predictions
Start hereHow it worksThree models vote on every game. We publish the method, the calibration and every miss.Read the methodology →
The games
Game PredictionsLive Win ProbabilityAll 32 TeamsCompare Two Teams
2026 season
Projections HubPlayer ProjectionsPlayoff PictureSuper Bowl OddsAward Odds
Where teams stand
StandingsPower RankingsPlayoff OddsStrength of ScheduleRemaining Schedule
The model
MethodologyModel HealthCalibration, in publicModel vs MarketOur Wins vs Vegas
Betting
Start hereThe EdgeThe short list of games the model flags as bets, with unit sizing and the price we would take.See this week’s Edge →
The Edge
This Week’s EdgeFlagged bets, ProModel EdgesBankroll & Sizing
Markets
Game TotalsPlayer PropsSame-Game Parlay
Pools
Survivor PicksRanked by win probabilityCirca SurvivorEntries alive + availabilityPick'em PicksEvery game, straight upConfidence Pool PicksPoints + expected pointsHow Pools Work
Getting sharper
Expected ValueClosing Line ValueWhat ATS Means
Fantasy
Start hereFantasy HubSync your league and get lineups, trade grades and waiver targets under your exact scoring.Connect a league →
Your week
Projections & Start/SitFantasy HubSync your leagueDefense vs Position
Players
Stat LeadersPlayer RatingsNoPunt Player RatingNext Gen StatsAdvanced Stats
Context
Coaching TendenciesSeason OutlookMost Dramatic Games
Results
Learn
Start hereNew here?Eleven plain-English guides, from what a spread is to how closing line value works.Start with the basics →
Betting basics
All GuidesHow Spreads WorkOdds ExplainedBankroll ManagementBetting CalculatorsFree, no login
The game
What is EPAStats GlossaryPower Rankings ExplainedHow Standings WorkHow Playoffs Work
NoPunt
About NoPuntBlogFull LedgerLedger ExplorerFilter and sort, Pro
For developers
Public JSON APIData ExportsCSV, Pro
GO PRO
NoPunt

Every NFL pick on the record, win or lose. We publish live picks before kickoff. We track every loss. The receipts are all here.

Get every pick before kickoff.

GO PRO

PICKS

This WeekThe EdgeSurvivor PicksPick’em PicksConfidence Pool PicksCirca SurvivorTrack RecordTeamsCompareStandingsPower RankingsPlayoff Odds2026 Projections2026 Playoff Picture2026 Super Bowl Odds2026 Game Predictions

ANALYTICS

FantasyDefenseCoachingGame TotalsPlayer PropsModel EdgeStat LeadersPlayer RatingsSGP BuilderSchedule StrengthSeason OutlookSeason AwardsSeason ReviewModel Performance

LEARN

NFL SpreadsBetting OddsATS ExplainedEPA in FootballStats GlossaryAbout

MORE

Go ProDashboardPick LedgerMethodologyModel HonestyData ExportsAPI DocsNFL Data API
© 2026 NoPunt. Not a sportsbook. Not financial advice. For entertainment only, no guaranteed outcomes. 21+. Gambling problem? NY: 1-877-8-HOPENY. Elsewhere: 1-800-MY-RESET.
PrivacyTermsAPI
2026 SEASON · HEAD-TO-HEAD

KCVSDEN

Kansas City Chiefs
KC#3
Kansas City Chiefs
VS
Denver Broncos
DEN#20
Denver Broncos
CHANGE TEAMS
VS

KC leads in 7 of 7 statistical categories

STAT COMPARISON

2026 SEASON · EPA PER PLAY
KC
METRIC
DEN
+0.222
NET EPA / PLAY
-0.041
+0.172
OFF EPA / PLAY
-0.066
-0.050

BETTING RECORDS

2026 SEASON · W-L AND ATS
KC
4-0
STRAIGHT UP
100%
2-2
ATS
50%
DEN
3-2
STRAIGHT UP
60%
3-2
ATS
60%

RECENT FORM

2026 SEASON · LAST 5 GAMES
KC
WWWW
W4 STREAK
DEN
WLWWL

COACHING TENDENCIES

2026 SEASON · PLAY-BY-PLAY DERIVED
KC
TENDENCY
DEN
54.2%
PASS RATE
59.4%
25.9%
4TH DOWN GO RATE
7.9%
44.9%

PLAYOFF ODDS

2026 SEASON · MONTE CARLO SIMULATION
KC
PLAYOFFS>99%
CONF CHAMP26.3%
SUPER BOWL13.1%
DEN
PLAYOFFS<1%
CONF CHAMP<1%
SUPER BOWL

RECENT MEETINGS

14 GAMES ON FILE
SEASON / WKMATCHUPOUR PICKSCORERESULT
2026 WK8KC @ DENDENB—PENDING
2026 WK1DEN @ KCDENA+DEN 10 · KC 31LOSS
2025 WK17DEN @ KCDENBDEN 20 · KC 13WIN
2025 WK11KC @ DENDENCKC 19 · DEN 22WIN
2024 WK18KC @ DENKCC

PICK HISTORY

ALL-TIME · 14 MEETINGS SINCE 2020
10
PICKED KC
10 of 14 games
4
PICKED DEN
4 of 14 games
10
CORRECT PICKS
10 of 13 graded
Weekly Picks →Power Rankings →All Teams →Defense Rankings →Schedule Strength →Standings →
DEF EPA / PLAY
-0.025
48.6%
OFF SUCCESS RATE
39.9%
118.0
POINTS FOR
97.0
77.0
POINTS AGAINST
111.0
+41
POINT DIFF
-14
3RD DOWN CONV
34.4%
68.8%
RED ZONE TD RATE
60.0%
0.4%
NO HUDDLE RATE
5.6%
2.28
PTS / DRIVE
1.21
<1%
KC 0 · DEN 38
LOSS
2024 WK10DEN @ KCKCA+DEN 14 · KC 16WIN
2023 WK8KC @ DENKCSKC 9 · DEN 24LOSS
2023 WK6DEN @ KCKCSDEN 8 · KC 19WIN
2022 WK17DEN @ KCKCSDEN 24 · KC 27WIN
2022 WK14KC @ DENKCSKC 34 · DEN 28WIN
2021 WK18KC @ DENKCA+KC 28 · DEN 24WIN
2021 WK13DEN @ KCKCBDEN 9 · KC 22WIN
2020 WK13DEN @ KCKCA+DEN 16 · KC 22WIN
2020 WK7KC @ DENKCCKC 43 · DEN 16WIN