Skip to content
NoPunt
This Week
Predictions
Start hereHow it worksThree models vote on every game. We publish the method, the calibration and every miss.Read the methodology →
The games
Game PredictionsLive Win ProbabilityAll 32 TeamsCompare Two Teams
2026 season
Projections HubPlayer ProjectionsPlayoff PictureSuper Bowl OddsAward Odds
Where teams stand
StandingsPower RankingsPlayoff OddsStrength of ScheduleRemaining Schedule
The model
MethodologyModel HealthCalibration, in publicModel vs MarketOur Wins vs Vegas
Betting
Start hereThe EdgeThe short list of games the model flags as bets, with unit sizing and the price we would take.See this week’s Edge →
The Edge
This Week’s EdgeFlagged bets, ProModel EdgesBankroll & Sizing
Markets
Game TotalsPlayer PropsSame-Game Parlay
Pools
Survivor PicksRanked by win probabilityCirca SurvivorEntries alive + availabilityPick'em PicksEvery game, straight upConfidence Pool PicksPoints + expected pointsHow Pools Work
Getting sharper
Expected ValueClosing Line ValueWhat ATS Means
Fantasy
Start hereFantasy HubSync your league and get lineups, trade grades and waiver targets under your exact scoring.Connect a league →
Your week
Projections & Start/SitFantasy HubSync your leagueDefense vs Position
Players
Stat LeadersPlayer RatingsNoPunt Player RatingNext Gen StatsAdvanced Stats
Context
Coaching TendenciesSeason OutlookMost Dramatic Games
Results
Learn
Start hereNew here?Eleven plain-English guides, from what a spread is to how closing line value works.Start with the basics →
Betting basics
All GuidesHow Spreads WorkOdds ExplainedBankroll ManagementBetting CalculatorsFree, no login
The game
What is EPAStats GlossaryPower Rankings ExplainedHow Standings WorkHow Playoffs Work
NoPunt
About NoPuntBlogFull LedgerLedger ExplorerFilter and sort, Pro
For developers
Public JSON APIData ExportsCSV, Pro
GO PRO
NoPunt

Every NFL pick on the record, win or lose. We publish live picks before kickoff. We track every loss. The receipts are all here.

Get every pick before kickoff.

GO PRO

PICKS

This WeekThe EdgeSurvivor PicksPick’em PicksConfidence Pool PicksCirca SurvivorTrack RecordTeamsCompareStandingsPower RankingsPlayoff Odds2026 Projections2026 Playoff Picture2026 Super Bowl Odds2026 Game Predictions

ANALYTICS

FantasyDefenseCoachingGame TotalsPlayer PropsModel EdgeStat LeadersPlayer RatingsSGP BuilderSchedule StrengthSeason OutlookSeason AwardsSeason ReviewModel Performance

LEARN

NFL SpreadsBetting OddsATS ExplainedEPA in FootballStats GlossaryAbout

MORE

Go ProDashboardPick LedgerMethodologyModel HonestyData ExportsAPI DocsNFL Data API
© 2026 NoPunt. Not a sportsbook. Not financial advice. For entertainment only, no guaranteed outcomes. 21+. Gambling problem? NY: 1-877-8-HOPENY. Elsewhere: 1-800-MY-RESET.
PrivacyTermsAPI
2026 SEASON · HEAD-TO-HEAD

LACVSMIA

Los Angeles Chargers
LAC#28
Los Angeles Chargers
VS
Miami Dolphins
MIA#31
Miami Dolphins
CHANGE TEAMS
VS

LAC leads in 6 of 7 statistical categories

STAT COMPARISON

2026 SEASON · EPA PER PLAY
LAC
METRIC
MIA
-0.150
NET EPA / PLAY
-0.224
-0.207
OFF EPA / PLAY
-0.116
-0.057

BETTING RECORDS

2026 SEASON · W-L AND ATS
LAC
0-5
STRAIGHT UP
0%
0-4-1
ATS
0%
MIA
0-5
STRAIGHT UP
0%
1-3-1
ATS
25%

RECENT FORM

2026 SEASON · LAST 5 GAMES
LAC
LLLLL
L5 STREAK
MIA
LLLLL
L5 STREAK

COACHING TENDENCIES

2026 SEASON · PLAY-BY-PLAY DERIVED
LAC
TENDENCY
MIA
52.1%
PASS RATE
52.5%
22.2%
4TH DOWN GO RATE
21.9%

PLAYOFF ODDS

2026 SEASON · MONTE CARLO SIMULATION
LAC
PLAYOFFS<1%
CONF CHAMP<1%
SUPER BOWL<1%
MIA
PLAYOFFS<1%
CONF CHAMP<1%
SUPER BOWL

RECENT MEETINGS

5 GAMES ON FILE
SEASON / WKMATCHUPOUR PICKSCORERESULT
2026 WK16LAC @ MIALACC—PENDING
2025 WK6LAC @ MIALACCLAC 29 · MIA 27WIN
2023 WK1MIA @ LACLACBMIA 36 · LAC 34LOSS
2022 WK14MIA @ LACMIABMIA 17 · LAC 23LOSS
2020 WK10LAC @ MIAMIAB

PICK HISTORY

ALL-TIME · 5 MEETINGS SINCE 2020
3
PICKED LAC
3 of 5 games
2
PICKED MIA
2 of 5 games
2
CORRECT PICKS
2 of 4 graded
Weekly Picks →Power Rankings →All Teams →Defense Rankings →Schedule Strength →Standings →
DEF EPA / PLAY
+0.108
37.8%
OFF SUCCESS RATE
37.6%
84.0
POINTS FOR
70.0
129.0
POINTS AGAINST
132.0
-45
POINT DIFF
-62
34.8%
3RD DOWN CONV
41.3%
70.0%
RED ZONE TD RATE
50.0%
5.2%
NO HUDDLE RATE
2.2%
1.05
PTS / DRIVE
1.04
<1%
LAC 21 · MIA 29
WIN