Skip to content
NoPunt
This Week
Predictions
Start hereHow it worksThree models vote on every game. We publish the method, the calibration and every miss.Read the methodology →
The games
Game PredictionsLive Win ProbabilityAll 32 TeamsCompare Two Teams
2026 season
Projections HubPlayer ProjectionsPlayoff PictureSuper Bowl OddsAward Odds
Where teams stand
StandingsPower RankingsPlayoff OddsStrength of ScheduleRemaining Schedule
The model
MethodologyModel HealthCalibration, in publicModel vs MarketOur Wins vs Vegas
Betting
Start hereThe EdgeThe short list of games the model flags as bets, with unit sizing and the price we would take.See this week’s Edge →
The Edge
This Week’s EdgeFlagged bets, ProModel EdgesBankroll & Sizing
Markets
Game TotalsPlayer PropsSame-Game Parlay
Pools
Survivor PicksRanked by win probabilityCirca SurvivorEntries alive + availabilityPick'em PicksEvery game, straight upConfidence Pool PicksPoints + expected pointsHow Pools Work
Getting sharper
Expected ValueClosing Line ValueWhat ATS Means
Fantasy
Start hereFantasy HubSync your league and get lineups, trade grades and waiver targets under your exact scoring.Connect a league →
Your week
Projections & Start/SitFantasy HubSync your leagueDefense vs Position
Players
Stat LeadersPlayer RatingsNoPunt Player RatingNext Gen StatsAdvanced Stats
Context
Coaching TendenciesSeason OutlookMost Dramatic Games
Results
Learn
Start hereNew here?Eleven plain-English guides, from what a spread is to how closing line value works.Start with the basics →
Betting basics
All GuidesHow Spreads WorkOdds ExplainedBankroll ManagementBetting CalculatorsFree, no login
The game
What is EPAStats GlossaryPower Rankings ExplainedHow Standings WorkHow Playoffs Work
NoPunt
About NoPuntBlogFull LedgerLedger ExplorerFilter and sort, Pro
For developers
Public JSON APIData ExportsCSV, Pro
GO PRO
NoPunt

Every NFL pick on the record, win or lose. We publish live picks before kickoff. We track every loss. The receipts are all here.

Get every pick before kickoff.

GO PRO

PICKS

This WeekThe EdgeSurvivor PicksPick’em PicksConfidence Pool PicksCirca SurvivorTrack RecordTeamsCompareStandingsPower RankingsPlayoff Odds2026 Projections2026 Playoff Picture2026 Super Bowl Odds2026 Game Predictions

ANALYTICS

FantasyDefenseCoachingGame TotalsPlayer PropsModel EdgeStat LeadersPlayer RatingsSGP BuilderSchedule StrengthSeason OutlookSeason AwardsSeason ReviewModel Performance

LEARN

NFL SpreadsBetting OddsATS ExplainedEPA in FootballStats GlossaryAbout

MORE

Go ProDashboardPick LedgerMethodologyModel HonestyData ExportsAPI DocsNFL Data API
© 2026 NoPunt. Not a sportsbook. Not financial advice. For entertainment only, no guaranteed outcomes. 21+. Gambling problem? NY: 1-877-8-HOPENY. Elsewhere: 1-800-MY-RESET.
PrivacyTermsAPI
2026 SEASON · HEAD-TO-HEAD

NEVSLV

New England Patriots
NE#11
New England Patriots
VS
Las Vegas Raiders
LV#18
Las Vegas Raiders
CHANGE TEAMS
VS

NE leads in 6 of 7 statistical categories

STAT COMPARISON

2026 SEASON · EPA PER PLAY
NE
METRIC
LV
+0.055
NET EPA / PLAY
-0.001
+0.046
OFF EPA / PLAY
+0.004
-0.009

BETTING RECORDS

2026 SEASON · W-L AND ATS
NE
4-2
STRAIGHT UP
67%
3-2-1
ATS
60%
LV
3-3
STRAIGHT UP
50%
5-1
ATS
83%

RECENT FORM

2026 SEASON · LAST 5 GAMES
NE
WWWLW
W3 STREAK
LV
LLLWW
L3 STREAK

COACHING TENDENCIES

2026 SEASON · PLAY-BY-PLAY DERIVED
NE
TENDENCY
LV
54.0%
PASS RATE
59.3%
25.0%
4TH DOWN GO RATE
21.6%

PLAYOFF ODDS

2026 SEASON · MONTE CARLO SIMULATION
NE
PLAYOFFS>99%
CONF CHAMP2.1%
SUPER BOWL0.6%
LV
PLAYOFFS>99%
CONF CHAMP0.9%
SUPER BOWL

RECENT MEETINGS

5 GAMES ON FILE
SEASON / WKMATCHUPOUR PICKSCORERESULT
2026 WK5LV @ NENEALV 17 · NE 45WIN
2025 WK1LV @ NENECLV 20 · NE 13LOSS
2023 WK6NE @ LVLVBNE 17 · LV 21WIN
2022 WK15NE @ LVLVCNE 24 · LV 30WIN
2020 WK3LV @ NENEB

PICK HISTORY

ALL-TIME · 5 MEETINGS SINCE 2020
3
PICKED NE
3 of 5 games
2
PICKED LV
2 of 5 games
4
CORRECT PICKS
4 of 5 graded
Weekly Picks →Power Rankings →All Teams →Defense Rankings →Schedule Strength →Standings →
DEF EPA / PLAY
+0.005
45.4%
OFF SUCCESS RATE
42.6%
110.0
POINTS FOR
132.0
94.0
POINTS AGAINST
129.0
+16
POINT DIFF
+3
38.7%
3RD DOWN CONV
40.6%
63.6%
RED ZONE TD RATE
64.3%
0.6%
NO HUDDLE RATE
7.3%
1.61
PTS / DRIVE
1.81
<1%
LV 20 · NE 36
WIN